When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
3,141 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
Went over by halftime, leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 6 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
DUKE -4 | 49.5 | 28526781 | Q2 | ASU Q3 Lead lost |
39–42 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CLEM -4.5 | 55.5 | 28567391 | Q2 | DUKE Q1 Late cover flip Lead lost |
46–45 |
2025 · Week 3 |
CONN -9.5 | 51.5 | 2452667685 | Q2 | DEL Q1 Lead lost |
41–44 |
2024 · Week 10 |
UNM -7.5 | 60.5 | 27708094 | Q2 | WYO Q4 Lead lost |
49–45 |
2023 · Week 13 |
ECU -3 | 43.5 | 27445056 | Q2 | TLSA Q3 Lead lost |
29–27 |
2023 · Week 5 |
APP -13.5 | 50.5 | 28567581 | Q2 | ULM Q1 Lead lost |
41–40 |
ASU
DUKE
CLEM
CONN
DEL
WYO
UNM
TLSA
ECU
APP
ULMWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 494
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 556
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,929 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,988 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 516 | 100% 516 |
| 1–3 | 192 | 95% 182 |
| 4–7 | 295 | 86% 255 |
| 8–10 | 261 | 70% 184 |
| 11–14 | 345 | 58% 200 |
| 15–17 | 270 | 41% 110 |
| 18–21 | 339 | 27% 92 |
| 22+ | 923 | 7% 67 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.