Ocean Center · Neutral site
Closing line
PAC -2.5✓ PAC covered by 12.5
PAC -2.5✓ PAC covered by 12.5Closing total135.5Under by 14.5
| PAC | This season | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | O/U | 1-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PAC 72–68 JAX · ✓ PAC (64%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAC | 28 | 40 | 68 |
| JAX | 20 | 33 | 53 |
1st half: PAC 28, JAX 20 (PAC by 8). The model had PAC by 2.7 and a total of 65.6 (actual 48).
Team stats
| PAC | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-57 40% | Field goals | 19-51 37% |
| 5-26 19% | 3-pointers | 2-14 14% |
| 17-23 74% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 48 18 off | Rebounds | 24 6 off |
| 10 | Assists | 7 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| PAC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Ralph F | 40 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 5-10 | 0-2 |
| TJ Wainwright G | 37 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6-13 | 3-8 |
| Isaac Jack F | 29 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Justin Rochelin G | 19 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Kajus Kublickas G | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Clayton G | 34 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Alexis Marmolejos G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jaion Pitt F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| KC Ibekwe C | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Clayton Mpiana, Kellen Hampton, Eyal Harel, Emmanuel Manyuon, Augustas Brazdeikis, Dominic Capriotti, Noah Budu, Carlsheon Young, Kris Keinys
| JAX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lockett Jr. G | 31 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 0-3 |
| Jaylen Jones G | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Jason Thirdkill Jr. F | 27 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Donovan Rivers F | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Hayden Wood G | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Evan Sterck G | 21 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Chris Arias G | 19 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-4 |
| Charles Caporaso C | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Allen Udemadu F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Michael Harper Jr. G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Enrico Borio F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Simon Wheeler G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Roman Loux, Lamont Jackson, Anakin Brown, Jaylen Jordon, Tito Deng
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPAC -2.5
ModelPAC -4.2
Model edgePAC +1.7
W PAC covered
Total
Market135.5
Model140.1
Model edgeOver 4.6
L Under
Projected score
PAC 72.2 · JAX 67.9
PAC 68 · JAX 53
Win probability
PAC 64%
1st half
Spread
PAC -2.7
PAC -8.0
Total
65.6
48 points
Projected score
PAC 34.2 · JAX 31.5
PAC 28 · JAX 20
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPAC -2.5
no move
ClosePAC -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open135.5
no move
Close135.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PAC -155 · JAX +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PAC -2.5 · unchangedmodel PAC -4
model PAC -4
Opened 135.5 · unchangedmodel 140
model 140
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAClast 5 | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
| JAXlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pacific
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
NEV
NEVL 77-78
+12.5
12
vs
LBSU
LBSUW 69-66
−9.5
15
@
CSUF
CSUFW 85-73
+5.5
20
@
FAU
FAUL 59-82
−15.5
24
vs
STBK
STBKW 86-58
+23.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@NEV
NEVL 77-78
+15.5
12
vsLBSU
LBSUW 69-66
−6.5
15
@CSUF
CSUFW 85-73
−1.5
20
@FAU
FAUL 59-82
−13.5
24
vsSTBK
STBKW 86-58
−1.5
over 1under 4avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Jacksonville
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
MIA
MIAL 69-86
+1.5
11
@
HPU
HPUL 64-85
−3.5
15
@
VMI
VMIW 69-67
+0.5
18
@
GMU
GMUL 57-79
−5.5
24
vs
BCU
BCUW 69-64
+8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MIA
MIAL 69-86
+12.5
11
@HPU
HPUL 64-85
−7.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 69-67
−15.5
18
@GMU
GMUL 57-79
−0.5
24
vsBCU
BCUW 69-64
−10.5
over 1under 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pacific
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stony Brook86–58
- L@ FAU59–82
- W@ Fullerton85–73
- Wvs Long Beach St69–66
- L@ Nevada77–78
1 day since their last game.
Jacksonville
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bethune69–64
- L@ George Mason57–79
- W@ VMI69–67
- L@ High Point64–85
- L@ Miami69–86
1 day since their last game.