Loyola Marymount Lions vs Ohio Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 5:00 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#121LMULMU70▲ winner

Final

#128OHIOOhio58final

Closing lineLMU -3.5✓ LMU covered by 8.5

Closing total144.5Under by 16.5

Season records: LMU and Ohio
LMU	This season	OHIO
5-1	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LMU 76–73 OHIO · ✓ LMU (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LMU	31	39	70
OHIO	32	26	58

1st half: LMU 31, OHIO 32 (OHIO by 1). The model had LMU by 1.7 and a total of 69.7 (actual 63).

Team stats

LMU		OHIO
26-63 41%	Field goals	17-54 31%
6-26 23%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
12-17 71%	Free throws	17-29 59%
47 15 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
10	Assists	6
11	Steals	12
8	Blocks	1
16	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	19
36	Points in paint	18
7	Fast-break points	5

Players

LMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron McBride F	34	14	8	0	6-6	2-2
Rodney Brown Jr. G	31	10	3	1	3-12	2-8
Jalen Shelley F	30	4	13	2	2-11	0-2
AJ Thomas G	24	15	1	2	5-9	1-4
Rick Issanza C	23	6	9	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Myron Amey Jr. G	31	11	7	3	3-13	1-7
Nakyel Shelton G	11	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Rokas Jocius F	9	6	1	1	3-4	0-0
Josh Dalton F	7	2	2	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Kevin Carney, George Tupy, Jan Vide, Marley Zeller, Jael Martin, Tanner Thomas, Cooper Smith

OHIO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Paveletzke G	38	10	6	2	3-11	0-2
Aidan Hadaway F	33	12	5	0	4-10	2-4
Elijah Elliott G	31	5	8	1	1-6	1-4
Javan Simmons F	23	9	3	0	3-7	0-1
Dior Conners G	15	3	1	0	1-8	1-5
Bench
Ajay Sheldon G	27	8	1	2	2-8	2-7
Jalen Breath F	16	4	5	1	1-1	0-0
JJ Kelly G	15	7	4	0	2-3	1-2
Ayden Evans F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kiir Kuany, Chase Boals, Jesse Burris, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LMU -3.5	LMU -2.5	OHIO +1.0	L LMU covered
Total	144.5	148.8	Over 4.3	L Under
Projected score	—	LMU 75.6 · OHIO 73.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -1.7	OHIO -1.0
1H total	69.7	63
1H projected score	LMU 35.7 · OHIO 34	LMU 31 · OHIO 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LMU WWWWL	4-2	67%	0-1	2-1
OHIO WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: LMU neutral site, as favorite; OHIO neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LMU OUUOU	2-4	33%	5-1
OHIO UOOUO	4-2	67%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LMUlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
OHIOlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LMU

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

over 2under 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 15	@LOU	L 81-106	+31.5	W +6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 19	vsBCU	L 73-76	-6.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsGMU	L 69-92	+7.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

LOU

L 81-106

+6.5

BCU

L 73-76

−9.5

GMU

L 69-92

−15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

LOU

L 81-106

+12.5

BCU

L 73-76

−8.5

GMU

L 69-92

+18.5

over 4under 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LMU vs Ohio

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LMU

Ohio

LMU

Ohio