Providence Friars vs Florida Gators: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · Neutral site

Final

#1FLAFlorida AP #1090▲ winner

Closing lineFLA -12.5✓ PROV covered by 0.5

Closing total169.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Providence and Florida
PROV	This season	FLA
4-3	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	1-5
6-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PROV 79–93 FLA · ✓ FLA (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PROV	39	39	78
FLA	45	45	90

1st half: PROV 39, FLA 45 (FLA by 6). The model had FLA by 8.5 and a total of 80.5 (actual 84).

Team stats

PROV		FLA
26-60 43%	Field goals	28-66 42%
6-16 38%	3-pointers	12-33 36%
20-26 77%	Free throws	22-27 81%
37 9 off	Rebounds	42 13 off
10	Assists	18
5	Steals	2
0	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	8
25	Fouls	21
30	Points in paint	26
9	Fast-break points	11

Players

PROV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Stefan Vaaks G	32	10	4	1	4-10	2-6
Corey Floyd Jr. G	30	12	4	1	5-10	0-2
Ryan Mela G	29	17	8	3	5-11	0-1
Jaylin Sellers G	23	14	5	0	5-8	3-3
Cole Hargrove F	12	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Jason Edwards G	25	13	2	2	4-13	1-3
Peteris Pinnis F	15	3	6	0	1-1	0-0
Oswin Erhunmwunse F	13	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Jamier Jones G	13	5	1	1	0-1	0-0
Jaylen Harrell G	6	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Nilavan Daniels G	2	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Duncan Powell, Jack Williams, Daquan Davis, Rich Barron

FLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xaivian Lee G	36	20	7	4	7-16	4-9
Boogie Fland G	35	17	2	3	6-18	4-10
Thomas Haugh F	34	16	12	5	3-9	1-5
Rueben Chinyelu C	25	13	10	1	4-7	0-0
Micah Handlogten C	24	0	6	3	0-1	0-1
Bench
Urban Klavzar G	30	18	1	1	5-12	3-8
Isaiah Brown G	12	6	2	0	3-3	0-0
Viktor Mikic C	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Lloyd, CJ Ingram, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, AJ Brown, Cooper Josefsberg, Alex Condon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FLA -12.5	FLA -14.3	FLA +1.8	L PROV covered
Total	169.5	172.0	Over 2.5	L Under
Projected score	—	PROV 78.8 · FLA 93.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -8.5	FLA -6.0
1H total	80.5	84
1H projected score	PROV 36 · FLA 44.5	PROV 39 · FLA 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PROV WLWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	0-2
FLA LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-5

Venue/role: PROV neutral site, as underdog; FLA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PROV OOOUO	6-1	86%	4-3
FLA UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PROVlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	6-1 86%
FLAlast 6	4-2 67%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Providence

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHC	W 89-79	-23.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsVT	L 101-107	-2.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 11	vsPENN	W 106-81	-19.5	W +5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 14	@COLO	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 18	vsUNH	W 98-66	-29.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPSU	W 77-65	-3.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 27	vsWIS	L 83-104	+6.5	L −14.5	166.5	O 187

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 89-79

−13.5

L 101-107

−8.5

PENN

W 106-81

+5.5

COLO

L 88-97

−7.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

+8.5

WIS

L 83-104

−14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 89-79

+15.5

L 101-107

+50.5

PENN

W 106-81

+14.5

COLO

L 88-97

+21.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

−23.5

WIS

L 83-104

+20.5

over 6under 1avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

over 2under 4avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Providence vs Florida

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Providence

Florida

Providence

Florida