NC State Wolfpack vs Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 9:30 PM ETLahaina Civic Center · Neutral site

#48NCSUNC State AP #2397final

Final

#11TEXTexas102▲ winner

Closing lineNCSU -1.5✓ TEX covered by 6.5

Closing total161.5Over by 37.5

Season records: NC State and Texas
NCSU	This season	TEX
5-1	Record	4-2
4-2	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCSU 80–81 TEX · ✓ TEX (52%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCSU	37	60	97
TEX	47	55	102

1st half: NCSU 37, TEX 47 (TEX by 10). The model had TEX by 0.2 and a total of 75.3 (actual 84).

Team stats

NCSU		TEX
34-64 53%	Field goals	29-52 56%
9-19 47%	3-pointers	16-32 50%
20-28 71%	Free throws	28-33 85%
28 8 off	Rebounds	31 6 off
14	Assists	18
3	Steals	4
1	Blocks	2
6	Turnovers	7
27	Fouls	21
46	Points in paint	20
7	Fast-break points	24

Players

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Paul McNeil Jr. G	38	20	3	0	6-11	3-6
Ven-Allen Lubin F	37	23	9	3	10-14	0-0
Quadir Copeland G	33	28	4	6	10-14	2-3
Darrion Williams F	32	10	4	3	3-10	2-5
Tre Holloman G	18	5	1	2	2-4	1-1
Bench
Alyn Breed G	14	7	1	0	2-4	1-2
Terrance Arceneaux G	13	4	1	0	1-2	0-1
Matt Able G	9	0	2	0	0-5	0-1
Musa Sagnia C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Scottie Ebube, Jayme Kontuniemi

TEX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Pope G	38	28	0	4	8-15	7-13
Dailyn Swain G	29	14	6	7	4-9	0-2
Matas Vokietaitis C	25	13	3	0	4-4	0-0
Camden Heide F	22	11	5	1	4-5	3-4
Tramon Mark G	16	5	2	0	2-5	0-3
Bench
Chendall Weaver G	32	17	8	3	4-8	3-5
Simeon Wilcher G	23	12	4	2	3-5	3-5
Lassina Traore F	15	2	3	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Cole Bott, John Clark, Nic Codie, Brandon Taylor, Anthon McDermott, Declan Duru Jr., Lewis Obiorah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -1.5	TEX -0.6	TEX +2.1	W TEX covered
Total	161.5	160.8	Under 0.7	L Over
Projected score	—	NCSU 80.1 · TEX 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -0.2	TEX -10.0
1H total	75.3	84
1H projected score	NCSU 37.5 · TEX 37.7	NCSU 37 · TEX 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NCSU WWLLW	4-2	67%	1-1	4-2
TEX WWLWL	3-3	50%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: NCSU neutral site, as favorite; TEX neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOUOU	4-2	67%	5-1
TEX OUUOO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSUlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
TEXlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCSU 0–1 TEXTEX leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NCSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2024-25	TEX 63 @ NCSU 59	NCSU +2.5	TEX W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC State

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

over 4under 2avg +11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 18	vsRID	W 99-65	-30.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsASU	L 86-87	-6.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

RID

W 99-65

+3.5

ASU

L 86-87

−7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

RID

W 99-65

+20.5

ASU

L 86-87

+19.5

over 3under 3avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC State vs Texas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC State

Texas

NC State

Texas