State Farm Field House · Neutral site
Closing line
LIB -4.5✓ BRAD covered by 14.5
LIB -4.5✓ BRAD covered by 14.5Closing total144.5Under by 6.5
| LIB | This season | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 2-5 |
| 4-0 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 75–73 BRAD · ✗ LIB (60%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| BRAD | 43 | 31 | 74 |
1st half: LIB 33, BRAD 43 (BRAD by 10). The model had LIB by 1.9 and a total of 69.2 (actual 76).
Team stats
| LIB | BRAD | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-48 46% | Field goals | 27-53 51% |
| 9-23 39% | 3-pointers | 8-18 44% |
| 11-21 52% | Free throws | 12-14 86% |
| 20 5 off | Rebounds | 36 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 16 |
| 9 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Metheny G | 36 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 35 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 8-12 | 5-6 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 35 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Colin Porter G | 32 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| JJ Harper G | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zander Carter G | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Josh Smith F | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Drew Grimes F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JC Shirer Jr., Torr Sorensen, TJ Drain, Isaiah Ihnen, Brady Kester
| BRAD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquan Johnson G | 33 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 2-8 | 2-4 |
| Demarion Burch G | 33 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 8-10 | 1-2 |
| AJ Smith F | 26 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Alex Huibregtse G | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Ahmet Jonovic C | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Montana Wheeler G | 22 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Timoty van der Knaap G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Corey Thomas F | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Dietrich Richardson G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kai Yu C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gus Rugaard, Matthew Zobrist, Jackson Seastrunk, Handy Toussaint III, Gustavo Guimares
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIB -4.5
ModelLIB -2.8
Model edgeBRAD +1.7
W BRAD covered
Total
Market144.5
Model147.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
L Under
Projected score
LIB 75.3 · BRAD 72.5
LIB 64 · BRAD 74
Win probability
LIB 60%
1st half
Spread
LIB -1.9
BRAD -10.0
Total
69.2
76 points
Projected score
LIB 35.6 · BRAD 33.7
LIB 33 · BRAD 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -5.5
1 → BRAD
CloseLIB -4.5
1 pt toward BRAD
Total
Open148.5
▼ 4
Close144.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
LIB -218 · BRAD +180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -5.5 · closed LIB -4.5 · moved 1 toward BRADmodel LIB -3
model LIB -3
Opened 148.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 4 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIBlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% | 4-0 100% |
| BRADlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 2-5 29% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LIB 1–0 BRADLIB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIB 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022-23 | BRAD 44 vs LIB 55 | LIB -1.5 | LIB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-0
100% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
COFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vs
FAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vs
UVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vs
TOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
over 4under 0avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bradley
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
2-5
29% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SBU
SBUL 63-69
−4.5
8
vs
CMU
CMUW 85-54
+21.5
12
vs
UTM
UTML 67-78
−26.5
15
@
SF
SFL 64-75
−1.5
19
vs
UML
UMLW 87-77
−11.5
24
vs
PRIN
PRINW 88-64
+14.5
25
vs
UCSD
UCSDL 77-87
−11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSBU
SBUL 63-69
−7.5
8
vsCMU
CMUW 85-54
−8.5
12
vsUTM
UTML 67-78
+0.5
15
@SF
SFL 64-75
−7.5
19
vsUML
UMLW 87-77
+14.5
24
vsPRIN
PRINW 88-64
+10.5
25
vsUCSD
UCSDL 77-87
+18.5
over 4under 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Towson69–72
- Wvs Vermont79–73
- Wvs FAU88–68
- Wvs Charleston90–75
1 day since their last game.
Bradley
3-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UC San Diego77–87
- Wvs Princeton88–64
- Wvs UMass Lowell87–77
- L@ San Francisco64–75
- Lvs UT Martin67–78
1 day since their last game.