Belmont Bruins vs Toledo Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 1:30 PM ETAlico Arena · Neutral site

#138BELBelmont87▲ winner

Final

#157TOLToledo72final

Closing lineBEL -4.5✓ BEL covered by 10.5

Closing total163.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Belmont and Toledo
BEL	This season	TOL
5-0	Record	4-2
3-2	ATS	3-3
1-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BEL 81–77 TOL · ✓ BEL (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BEL	36	51	87
TOL	33	39	72

1st half: BEL 36, TOL 33 (BEL by 3). The model had BEL by 2.6 and a total of 74.3 (actual 69).

Team stats

BEL		TOL
35-60 58%	Field goals	26-59 44%
15-30 50%	3-pointers	11-31 35%
2-3 67%	Free throws	9-13 69%
39 10 off	Rebounds	21 6 off
20	Assists	13
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	2
20	Turnovers	12
13	Fouls	11
36	Points in paint	26
5	Fast-break points	19

Players

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Lundblade G	38	22	3	4	8-15	6-12
Sam Orme F	33	18	7	4	7-12	4-8
Jabez Jenkins G	26	12	5	1	5-7	2-2
Brigham Rogers F	24	10	7	2	5-6	0-0
Nic McClain G	23	9	4	4	4-9	1-2
Bench
Jack Smiley G	19	6	3	4	2-5	2-4
Drew Scharnowski F	16	6	1	1	3-3	0-0
Isaiah West G	9	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Win Miller G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Eoin Dillon F	5	2	2	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Keith Robbins, Graydon Lemke, Jake Dykstra, Cooper Haynes, Aidan Noyes

TOL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sonny Wilson G	37	13	0	4	5-11	2-6
Leroy Blyden Jr. G	36	14	2	5	5-10	3-6
Sean Craig F	36	17	4	2	6-12	2-6
Kyler Vanderjagt G	26	6	1	1	2-8	2-5
Austin Parks C	19	15	5	0	5-9	1-2
Bench
Jaylan Ouwinga F	24	5	3	1	2-5	1-3
Will James Jr. G	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Chris Riddle F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Mynor Strong G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler Ode G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
London Praytor F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Toby Nwokolo, Phoenix Glassnor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -4.5	BEL -4.0	TOL +0.5	L BEL covered
Total	163.5	158.8	Under 4.7	W Under
Projected score	—	BEL 81.4 · TOL 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -2.6	BEL -3.0
1H total	74.3	69
1H projected score	BEL 38.5 · TOL 35.9	BEL 36 · TOL 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BEL WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-0	3-2
TOL LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: BEL neutral site, as favorite; TOL neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BEL UOUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
TOL UUOOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
TOLlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Belmont

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −9.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

over 1under 4avg −9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Toledo

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

over 2under 4avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Belmont vs Toledo

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Belmont

Toledo

Belmont

Toledo