Northern Iowa Panthers vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 4:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

Final

#108TLSATulsa63▲ winner

Closing lineUNI -2.5✓ TLSA covered by 5.5

Closing total137.5Under by 14.5

Season records: Northern Iowa and Tulsa
UNI	This season	TLSA
6-0	Record	4-1
4-2	ATS	4-1
1-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNI 70–69 TLSA · ✗ UNI (51%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNI	27	33	60
TLSA	34	29	63

1st half: UNI 27, TLSA 34 (TLSA by 7). The model had UNI by 0.3 and a total of 65.2 (actual 61).

Team stats

UNI		TLSA
23-57 40%	Field goals	20-49 41%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	9-28 32%
7-10 70%	Free throws	14-15 93%
33 7 off	Rebounds	33 4 off
16	Assists	9
4	Steals	5
0	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	10
13	Fouls	11
30	Points in paint	20
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

UNI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Campbell G	36	0	3	4	0-6	0-5
Leon Bond III G	35	14	5	1	6-13	2-2
Will Hornseth F	28	16	6	3	7-11	0-0
Tristan Smith F	20	7	7	3	3-5	0-1
Max Weisbrod G	17	0	4	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Ben Schwieger F	22	3	2	1	1-4	1-3
Kyle Pock F	20	15	0	0	4-10	4-10
Ismael Diouf F	10	4	1	2	2-4	0-2
Geon Hutchins G	9	1	2	0	0-1	0-0
RJ Taylor G	3	0	1	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Levi Valdo, Marino Dubravcic, Cade Courbat, Redek Born, Jalen Wilson, Hunter Jacobson, Chase Courbat

TLSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Barnstable G	28	11	5	0	4-8	3-5
Tylen Riley G	25	13	0	3	3-8	1-2
Ade Popoola G	24	5	4	0	2-5	1-3
David Green F	23	6	4	0	2-9	2-8
Tyler Behrend F	9	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Myles Rigsby G	28	10	2	3	3-7	0-3
Romad Dean F	17	4	4	0	1-3	0-2
KJ Martin Jr. F	17	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Lawal G	15	12	1	0	4-7	2-5
Ian Smikle F	14	2	4	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Leon Sifferlin, Carter Benton, Cal Conroy, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNI -2.5	UNI -0.3	TLSA +2.2	W TLSA covered
Total	137.5	139.2	Over 1.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UNI 69.7 · TLSA 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -0.3	TLSA -7.0
1H total	65.2	61
1H projected score	UNI 32.8 · TLSA 32.4	UNI 27 · TLSA 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNI LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-0	3-2
TLSA WLWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UNI neutral site, as favorite; TLSA neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUUOU	1-5	17%	6-0
TLSA UOOOU	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNIlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%
TLSAlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 22	@UCI	W 70-69	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsLUC	W 72-51	-8.5	W +12.5	134.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

UCI

W 70-69

+3.5

LUC

W 72-51

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

UCI

W 70-69

+0.5

LUC

W 72-51

−11.5

over 1under 5avg −14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulsa

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsURI	W 82-65	+3.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 12	@ORU	W 88-87	-5.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@KSU	L 83-84	+12.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsAPSU	W 84-75	-8.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsSJSU	W 81-51	-5.5	W +24.5	149.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

W 82-65

+20.5

ORU

W 88-87

−4.5

KSU

L 83-84

+11.5

APSU

W 84-75

+0.5

SJSU

W 81-51

+24.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

W 82-65

−6.5

ORU

W 88-87

+14.5

KSU

L 83-84

+6.5

APSU

W 84-75

+10.5

SJSU

W 81-51

−17.5

over 3under 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Iowa vs Tulsa

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

Tulsa

Northern Iowa

Tulsa