Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Chattanooga Mocs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 4:30 PM ETMcKenzie Arena · at Chattanooga

#306SEMOSE Missouri74▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUTC -3.5✓ SEMO covered by 7.5

Closing total149.5Under by 5.5

Season records: SE Missouri and Chattanooga
SEMO	This season	UTC
1-6	Record	2-4
2-5	ATS	2-4
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SEMO 75–79 UTC · ✗ UTC (63%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SEMO	44	30	74
UTC	46	24	70

1st half: SEMO 44, UTC 46 (UTC by 2). The model had UTC by 2.2 and a total of 72.0 (actual 90).

Team stats

SEMO		UTC
30-62 48%	Field goals	25-50 50%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	7-17 41%
5-9 56%	Free throws	13-17 76%
32 11 off	Rebounds	27 4 off
13	Assists	12
6	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	12
18	Fouls	13
38	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

SEMO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
BJ Ward G	36	10	1	4	4-8	2-4
Braxton Stacker G	33	12	3	1	3-12	2-7
Marqueas Bell G	23	4	1	1	2-5	0-1
Landren Blocker G	19	9	5	1	4-5	0-1
David Idada C	15	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Luke Almodovar G	28	16	4	1	6-13	4-9
Brendan Terry F	18	6	5	2	3-7	0-0
Troy Cole Jr. G	18	9	5	1	4-6	1-2
Elliot Lowndes F	10	8	2	1	4-6	0-1

Did not play: Saxton Hoepker, Jay Reynolds, Blaize Sagna, PJ Farmer, Trace Sadler

UTC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Frison G	34	17	7	3	6-7	0-1
Billy Smith G	27	8	4	0	3-7	1-4
Teddy Washington Jr. G	26	11	1	1	5-13	1-4
Sebastian Hartmann F	24	6	2	2	2-3	2-2
Makai Richards C	20	8	3	3	2-4	0-0
Bench
Tate Darner G	27	9	2	1	3-8	3-5
Josh Bowman F	18	2	4	1	1-5	0-1
Parker Robison G	16	7	3	1	3-3	0-0
Brennan Watkins G	4	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jikari Johnson G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Collin Mulholland, Houston Holland, Liam Vitters, Latif Diouf, Ryan Lopez, Zach Bleshoy, Sean Cusano

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTC -3.5	UTC -3.8	UTC +0.3	L SEMO covered
Total	149.5	153.7	Over 4.2	L Under
Projected score	—	SEMO 74.9 · UTC 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTC -2.2	UTC -2.0
1H total	72.0	90
1H projected score	SEMO 34.9 · UTC 37.1	SEMO 44 · UTC 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEMO LLWLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-4
UTC LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: SEMO away, as underdog; UTC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO OOUUO	5-2	71%	1-6
UTC OOUUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMOlast 7	1-6 14%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%
UTClast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SEMO 0–2 UTCUTC leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UTC has won the last 2 meetings · SEMO 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2024-25	UTC 87 @ SEMO 82	SEMO +8.5	SEMO W
Nov 26, 2023-24	SEMO 56 @ UTC 72	UTC -13.5	UTC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152
Nov 26	@NAU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 151
Nov 29	vsLIP	L 77-88	-3.5	L −14.5	153.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

NAU

L 72-79

−4.5

LIP

L 77-88

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

NAU

L 72-79

−2.5

LIP

L 77-88

+11.5

over 5under 2avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Chattanooga

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −9.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SMC	L 66-87	+15.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 8	@UNLV	L 69-101	+7.5	L −24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 15	@FGCU	L 73-91	-1.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SCST	W 78-66	-11.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 22	vsUNA	W 71-57	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 128
Nov 30	vsTNST	L 64-70	-8.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

−5.5

UNLV

L 69-101

−24.5

FGCU

L 73-91

−19.5

SCST

W 78-66

+0.5

UNA

W 71-57

+4.5

TNST

L 64-70

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

+7.5

UNLV

L 69-101

+14.5

FGCU

L 73-91

+11.5

SCST

W 78-66

−10.5

UNA

W 71-57

−21.5

TNST

L 64-70

−21.5

over 3under 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Missouri @ Chattanooga

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

Chattanooga

SE Missouri

Chattanooga