Davidson Wildcats at Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 9:00 PM ETGentile Arena · at Loyola Chicago · Conference game

#115DAVDavidson79▲ winner

Final

Closing lineDAV -1.5✓ DAV covered by 13.5

Closing total136.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Davidson and Loyola Chicago
DAV	This season	LUC
8-5	Record	5-10
6-7	ATS	4-11
7-6	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DAV 72–70 LUC · ✓ DAV (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DAV	45	34	79
LUC	36	28	64

1st half: DAV 45, LUC 36 (DAV by 9). The model had DAV by 1.6 and a total of 66.4 (actual 81).

Team stats

DAV		LUC
27-58 47%	Field goals	23-59 39%
14-32 44%	3-pointers	6-23 26%
11-17 65%	Free throws	12-21 57%
36 10 off	Rebounds	36 14 off
22	Assists	16
7	Steals	8
6	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	12
20	Fouls	19
22	Points in paint	30
11	Fast-break points	11

Players

DAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Parker Friedrichsen G	25	27	2	0	8-11	6-8
Devin Brown G	25	4	3	2	1-7	1-5
Sam Brown G	22	3	1	7	1-7	1-6
Josh Scovens F	22	5	5	6	2-6	0-1
Ian Platteeuw C	10	5	4	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Roberts Blums G	23	15	5	2	6-9	3-5
Nick Coval G	21	11	1	4	4-8	1-4
JaQualon Roberts F	17	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Sean Logan F	13	3	5	0	1-4	0-0
Hunter Adam G	12	3	4	0	1-2	1-2
Manie Joses F	10	3	2	1	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Phillip Kavu, John Nowland, RJ Greer, Joe Hurlburt, Brock Matheny

LUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kymany Houinsou G	30	13	0	4	5-6	0-0
Miles Rubin C	30	4	7	1	2-10	0-0
Joshua Ola-Joseph F	27	7	8	2	3-8	1-2
Deywilk Tavarez G	25	7	2	3	1-11	1-10
Kayde Dotson G	20	6	3	1	2-4	2-3
Bench
Nic Anderson G	27	13	2	2	5-11	2-6
Caleb Reese G	23	2	2	2	1-3	0-1
Alexander Richardson C	12	10	5	1	3-4	0-0
Zachary Royster F	3	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Brayden Young F	3	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Daniil Glazkov, Sam Yurasek, Dominick Harris, Chuck Love III, Justin Moore, Xavier Amos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAV -1.5	DAV -2.5	DAV +1.0	W DAV covered
Total	136.5	141.6	Over 5.1	W Over
Projected score	—	DAV 72.1 · LUC 69.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -1.6	DAV -9.0
1H total	66.4	81
1H projected score	DAV 34 · LUC 32.4	DAV 45 · LUC 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAV WLLLW	6-7	46%	2-1	4-4
LUC LLWWW	4-11	27%	2-6	3-5

Venue/role: DAV away, as favorite; LUC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAV UUOOU	7-6	54%	8-5
LUC OOOUU	7-8	47%	5-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAV	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
LUC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DAV 1–4 LUCLUC leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LUC has won the last 4 meetings · DAV 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2024-25	DAV 72 @ LUC 82	LUC -5.5	LUC W
Feb 18, 2024-25	LUC 77 @ DAV 69	DAV -2.5	LUC W
Mar 6, 2023-24	LUC 69 @ DAV 59	DAV -1.5	LUC W
Feb 4, 2023-24	DAV 63 @ LUC 76	LUC -5.5	LUC W
Jan 4, 2022-23	LUC 57 @ DAV 80	DAV -3.5	DAV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Davidson

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W W L W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

W W L W L W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

O U O U O O O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 4	vsCIT	W 79-63	-18.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsSMC	L 61-70	+8.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMERC	W 80-47	-11.5	W +21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 18	vsTEM	L 63-68	-5.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 22	@KU	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsDUQ	L 83-89	-2.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	@JOES	W 62-56	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

CIT

W 79-63

−2.5

SMC

L 61-70

−0.5

MERC

W 80-47

+21.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

−14.5

DUQ

L 83-89

−8.5

JOES

W 62-56

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

CIT

W 79-63

+4.5

SMC

L 61-70

−6.5

MERC

W 80-47

−5.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

+11.5

DUQ

L 83-89

+21.5

JOES

W 62-56

−21.5

over 7under 6avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

15 games played

Straight up

5-10

33% wins

Against the spread

4-11

27% covers · avg −7.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1033%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-1127%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-847%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

over 7under 8avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Davidson @ Loyola Chicago

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Davidson

Loyola Chicago

Davidson

Loyola Chicago