Wichita State Shockers at Charlotte 49ers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 6:10 PM ETHalton Arena · at Charlotte · Conference game

#77WICHWichita St100final

Final

#141CLTCharlotte104▲ winner

Closing lineWICH -5.5✓ CLT covered by 9.5

Closing total140.5Over by 63.5

Season records: Wichita St and Charlotte
WICH	This season	CLT
8-5	Record	5-8
9-4	ATS	6-7
5-8	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WICH 73–67 CLT · ✗ WICH (70%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	2OT	T
WICH	41	39	11	9	100
CLT	36	44	11	13	104

1st half: WICH 41, CLT 36 (WICH by 5). The model had WICH by 3.6 and a total of 65.8 (actual 77).

Team stats

WICH		CLT
36-75 48%	Field goals	32-66 48%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
18-22 82%	Free throws	29-38 76%
44 23 off	Rebounds	35 17 off
13	Assists	15
3	Steals	4
3	Blocks	7
11	Turnovers	9
24	Fouls	18
44	Points in paint	36
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

WICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenyon Giles G	48	27	1	3	9-21	6-14
Karon Boyd F	46	21	12	2	8-11	2-3
Michael Gray Jr. G	36	12	3	4	4-10	2-7
TJ Williams G	34	13	7	3	5-8	0-1
Emmanuel Okorafor F	17	4	4	0	1-5	0-0
Bench
William Berg C	33	10	11	1	4-9	0-0
Dillon Battie F	16	8	2	0	3-5	0-0
Dre Kindell G	14	5	0	0	2-4	0-1
Brian Amuneke G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Pierre Couisnard, Noah Hill, Tyrus Rathan-Mayes, Joy Ighovodja, Jaret Valencia, Henry Thengvall

CLT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anton Bonke C	41	16	11	1	8-12	0-0
Arden Conyers F	41	11	4	0	3-7	2-5
Ben Bradford G	20	2	0	1	0-4	0-1
Spencer Elliott F	13	8	1	2	1-2	0-1
Major Freeman G	12	5	0	1	2-4	1-3
Bench
Dezayne Mingo G	38	26	2	10	8-14	4-6
Damoni Harrison G	33	22	2	0	7-14	4-10
Raúl Villar G	31	12	4	0	3-5	0-0
Kylan Blackmon G	12	0	1	0	0-4	0-3
Nick Richart F	9	2	4	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jarne Elouna Eyenga, David Gomez, Kuluel Mading, Frank Oguche, Andrew Bailey, Ethan Butler

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WICH -5.5	WICH -5.8	WICH +0.3	L CLT covered
Total	140.5	140.5	—	Over
Projected score	—	WICH 73.2 · CLT 67.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -3.6	WICH -5.0
1H total	65.8	77
1H projected score	WICH 34.7 · CLT 31.1	WICH 41 · CLT 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WICH WLLWW	9-4	69%	3-0	5-3
CLT LLWWL	6-7	46%	4-4	2-4

Venue/role: WICH away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH OUOUU	5-8	38%	8-5
CLT UOOOO	7-6	54%	5-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICH	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
CLT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WICH 2–1 CLTWICH leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · WICH has won the last 2 meetings · WICH 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 4, 2024-25	WICH 66 @ CLT 58	CLT +1.5	WICH W
Jan 14, 2024-25	CLT 59 @ WICH 68	WICH -10.5	CLT W
Feb 18, 2023-24	WICH 61 @ CLT 72	CLT -6.5	CLT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

9-4

69% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg −6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-469%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

over 5under 8avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charlotte

13 games played

Straight up

5-8

38% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-838%

W W L L L L L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

W L L W L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

O U U O U O U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsINST	W 92-76	-4.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTNTC	W 70-65	-12.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsDAV	L 55-62	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 16	@VT	L 76-84	+18.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	@APP	L 63-65	+1.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 27	vsILST	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsRICH	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 2	vsNCAT	W 74-57	-7.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 7	vsUSU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 132
Dec 14	@COFC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Dec 18	vsLAF	W 81-67	-11.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsUIC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 164
Dec 30	vsTEM	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+11.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−7.5

DAV

L 55-62

−8.5

L 76-84

+10.5

APP

L 63-65

−0.5

ILST

L 69-79

−4.5

RICH

L 66-71

+1.5

NCAT

W 74-57

+9.5

USU

L 53-79

−15.5

COFC

L 67-74

−1.5

LAF

W 81-67

+2.5

UIC

W 88-76

+10.5

TEM

L 73-76

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+15.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−11.5

DAV

L 55-62

−26.5

L 76-84

+14.5

APP

L 63-65

−4.5

ILST

L 69-79

+8.5

RICH

L 66-71

−4.5

NCAT

W 74-57

−13.5

USU

L 53-79

−7.5

COFC

L 67-74

+0.5

LAF

W 81-67

+10.5

UIC

W 88-76

+26.5

TEM

L 73-76

+10.5

over 7under 6avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita St @ Charlotte

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Charlotte

Wichita St

Charlotte