MGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
TENN -14.5✓ TENN covered by 10.5
TENN -14.5✓ TENN covered by 10.5Closing total141.5Over by 3.5
 RUTG | This season | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 1-4 | ATS | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: RUTG 66–81 TENN · ✓ TENN (90%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 30 | 30 | 60 |
| TENN | 56 | 29 | 85 |
1st half: RUTG 30, TENN 56 (TENN by 26). The model had TENN by 8.8 and a total of 68.8 (actual 86).
Team stats
| RUTG | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-52 37% | Field goals | 31-61 51% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 11-22 50% |
| 16-24 67% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 28 11 off | Rebounds | 43 15 off |
| 6 | Assists | 18 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| RUTG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariq Francis G | 25 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Denis Badalau F | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Dylan Grant F | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-1 |
| Jamichael Davis G | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
| Emmanuel Ogbole C | 16 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Harun Zrno G | 25 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-5 |
| Darren Buchanan Jr. G | 23 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Bryce Ruglass Dortch F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chris Nwuli F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Gevonte Ware C | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Lino Mark G | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Kaden Powers G | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dorian Jones, Max Fradkin, Baye Fall
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 29 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 11-20 | 6-10 |
| Nate Ament F | 28 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-6 |
| Felix Okpara F | 28 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Cade Phillips F | 17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Amaree Abram G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bishop Boswell G | 18 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Carey F | 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-3 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ethan Burg G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Clarence Massamba G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Grant Hurst
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -14.5
ModelTENN -14.8
Model edgeTENN +0.3
W TENN covered
Total
Market141.5
Model146.7
Model edgeOver 5.2
W Over
Projected score
RUTG 65.9 · TENN 80.8
RUTG 60 · TENN 85
Win probability
TENN 90%
1st half
Spread
TENN -8.8
TENN -26.0
Total
68.8
86 points
Projected score
RUTG 30 · TENN 38.8
RUTG 30 · TENN 56
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -15.5
1 → RUTG
CloseTENN -14.5
1 pt toward RUTG
Total
Open140.5
▲ 1
Close141.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
RUTG +1100 · TENN -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -15.5 · closed TENN -14.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel TENN -15
model TENN -15
Opened 140.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUTGlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 1-4 20% | 3-2 60% |
| TENNlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 1-4 20% | 3-2 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rutgers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −7.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
RID
RIDW 81-53
+9.5
10
vs
ME
MEW 72-60
−6.5
14
vs
LEH
LEHW 84-72
−6.5
18
vs
AMER
AMERW 80-71
−7.5
21
vs
CCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−28.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-53
−5.5
10
vsME
MEW 72-60
+1.5
14
vsLEH
LEHW 84-72
+19.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 80-71
+7.5
21
vsCCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−16.5
over 3under 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vs
NKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vs
UNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vs
RICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vs
TNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
over 3under 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rutgers
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs C Connecticut54–67
- Wvs American80–71
- Wvs Lehigh84–72
- Wvs Maine72–60
- Wvs Rider81–53
3 days since their last game.
Tennessee
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tennessee St89–60
- Wvs Rice91–66
- Wvs North Florida99–66
- Wvs N Kentucky95–56
- Wvs Mercer76–61
4 days since their last game.