Nevada Wolf Pack vs Washington Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 4:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#96NEVNevada66final

Final

#56WASHWashington83▲ winner

Closing lineWASH -3.5✓ WASH covered by 13.5

Closing total145.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Nevada and Washington
NEV	This season	WASH
4-2	Record	4-1
2-4	ATS	2-3
4-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NEV 74–80 WASH · ✓ WASH (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NEV	28	38	66
WASH	34	49	83

1st half: NEV 28, WASH 34 (WASH by 6). The model had WASH by 3.2 and a total of 72.3 (actual 62).

Team stats

NEV		WASH
22-59 37%	Field goals	24-55 44%
6-14 43%	3-pointers	8-14 57%
16-23 70%	Free throws	27-36 75%
30 9 off	Rebounds	44 13 off
11	Assists	17
3	Steals	5
7	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	14
22	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

NEV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Price F	34	12	8	0	3-8	1-1
Corey Camper Jr. G	30	5	3	2	1-8	0-2
Tayshawn Comer G	29	16	2	5	6-11	1-2
Chuck Bailey III G	19	5	2	0	2-10	1-2
Joel Armotrading C	6	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Tyler Rolison G	19	3	0	2	1-6	0-1
Vaughn Weems G	15	9	2	0	3-5	1-1
Peyton White G	13	4	3	0	1-2	0-1
Kaleb Lowery F	11	2	3	0	1-4	0-1
Amire Robinson G	10	3	2	1	1-1	1-1
Myles Walker G	9	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Ethan Croley F	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jeriah Coleman C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Christopher Baudreau

WASH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Wesley Yates III G	39	25	4	3	5-13	4-8
Zoom Diallo G	35	19	6	5	5-9	1-1
Desmond Claude G	30	2	3	1	1-9	0-1
Quimari Peterson G	28	13	6	1	5-8	3-4
Franck Kepnang C	23	15	5	0	6-6	0-0
Bench
JJ Mandaquit G	22	4	5	6	0-1	0-0
Lathan Sommerville C	13	1	8	1	0-6	0-0
Jasir Rencher F	10	4	5	0	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Courtland Muldrew, Christian Nitu, Hannes Steinbach, BJ Roy, Mady Traore, Bryson Tucker, Jacob Ognacevic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WASH -3.5	WASH -5.6	WASH +2.1	W WASH covered
Total	145.5	154.4	Over 8.9	W Over
Projected score	—	NEV 74.4 · WASH 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WASH -3.2	WASH -6.0
1H total	72.3	62
1H projected score	NEV 34.6 · WASH 37.8	NEV 28 · WASH 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NEV LLLLW	2-4	33%	—	0-1
WASH WLLWL	2-3	40%	—	2-2

Venue/role: NEV neutral site, as underdog; WASH neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
WASH UOUUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEVlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
WASHlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NEV 3–0 WASHNEV leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NEV has won the last 3 meetings · NEV 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2024-25	WASH 53 @ NEV 63	NEV -6.5	NEV W
Nov 12, 2023-24	NEV 83 @ WASH 76	WASH -4.5	NEV W
Nov 24, 2021-22	NEV 81 vs WASH 62	WASH +4	NEV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nevada

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLT	W 77-50	-9.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsPAC	W 78-77	-13.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsSIU	W 86-81	-11.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 167
Nov 15	@SCU	L 83-98	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsUCD	L 71-75	-12.5	L −16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 22	vsUCSB	W 77-64	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 77-50

+17.5

PAC

W 78-77

−12.5

SIU

W 86-81

−6.5

SCU

L 83-98

−8.5

UCD

L 71-75

−16.5

UCSB

W 77-64

+7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 77-50

−9.5

PAC

W 78-77

+15.5

SIU

W 86-81

+14.5

SCU

L 83-98

+36.5

UCD

L 71-75

+2.5

UCSB

W 77-64

−6.5

over 4under 2avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

over 2under 3avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nevada vs Washington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nevada

Washington

Nevada

Washington