Madison Square Garden · Neutral site
Closing line
UK -3.5✓ MSU covered by 20.5
UK -3.5✓ MSU covered by 20.5Closing total152.5Under by 3.5
 MSU | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 3-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 76–81 UK · ✗ UK (69%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 44 | 39 | 83 |
| UK | 27 | 39 | 66 |
1st half: MSU 44, UK 27 (MSU by 17). The model had UK by 3.3 and a total of 73.5 (actual 71).
Team stats
| MSU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-64 50% | Field goals | 20-57 35% |
| 11-22 50% | 3-pointers | 7-30 23% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 19-22 86% |
| 42 10 off | Rebounds | 28 6 off |
| 25 | Assists | 13 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 31 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Coen Carr F | 30 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 8-12 | 2-2 |
| Carson Cooper C | 23 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Trey Fort G | 18 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-7 |
| Cam Ward F | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Scott F | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 31 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
| Otega Oweh G | 31 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-5 |
| Collin Chandler G | 26 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 21 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-4 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Moreno C | 20 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kam Williams G | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Trent Noah F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Reece Potter, Jaland Lowe, Zach Tow
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -3.5
ModelUK -5.8
Model edgeUK +2.3
L MSU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model156.8
Model edgeOver 4.3
L Under
Projected score
MSU 75.5 · UK 81.3
MSU 83 · UK 66
Win probability
UK 69%
1st half
Spread
UK -3.3
MSU -17.0
Total
73.5
71 points
Projected score
MSU 35.1 · UK 38.4
MSU 44 · UK 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -5.5
2 → MSU
CloseUK -3.5
2 pts toward MSU
Total
Open154.5
▼ 2
Close152.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSU +150 · UK -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -5.5 · closed UK -3.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel UK -6
model UK -6
Opened 154.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 downmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSUlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
| UKlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSU 1–0 UKMSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MSU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2022-23 | UK 77 vs MSU 86 | MSU +6.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
COLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vs
ARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vs
SJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
over 1under 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
NICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vs
VAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@
LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vs
EIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
over 3under 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs San José St79–60
- Wvs Arkansas69–66
- Wvs Colgate80–69
5 days since their last game.
Kentucky
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Illinois99–53
- L@ Louisville88–96
- Wvs Valparaiso107–59
- Wvs Nicholls77–51
4 days since their last game.