Omaha Mavericks at Portland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 5:00 PM ETViking Pavilion · at Portland St

#279OMAOmaha60▲ winner

Final

Closing linePRST -12.5✓ OMA covered by 17.5

Closing total144.5Under by 29.5

Season records: Omaha and Portland St
OMA	This season	PRST
1-7	Record	3-2
1-7	ATS	5-0
5-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OMA 74–81 PRST · ✗ PRST (72%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OMA	30	30	60
PRST	25	30	55

1st half: OMA 30, PRST 25 (OMA by 5). The model had PRST by 3.9 and a total of 72.2 (actual 55).

Team stats

OMA		PRST
20-50 40%	Field goals	20-50 40%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	6-30 20%
14-16 88%	Free throws	9-17 53%
36 11 off	Rebounds	29 10 off
14	Assists	14
2	Steals	4
2	Blocks	7
11	Turnovers	10
17	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	26
4	Fast-break points	4

Players

OMA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lance Waddles G	39	12	4	2	5-11	2-5
Khamani Cooper G	37	8	2	4	2-8	1-4
Kamryn Thomas F	36	7	6	2	3-7	0-2
Christian Richardson C	29	10	7	0	5-8	0-0
Ja'Sean Glover G	28	15	9	3	3-8	1-3
Bench
Julian Margrave F	14	8	1	1	2-8	2-6
Brock Scholl F	8	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Valentino Simon F	7	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Aidan Skradis G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Benji Nelson, Paul Djobet, Tony Osburn, Deng Mayar, Grant Stubblefield, Rob Matos, Isaac Ondekane

PRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaylin Henderson G	37	10	4	6	3-16	1-11
Tre-Vaughn Minott C	36	12	5	0	6-7	0-0
Terri Miller Jr. F	35	9	5	4	3-9	0-4
Keyon Kensie Jr. G	31	12	6	2	4-8	2-6
Alex Dupre G	14	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Bench
Kelcy Phipps G	27	1	1	2	0-2	0-2
Sebastian Tidor G	13	8	2	0	3-6	2-5
Charles Chukwu F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Williams G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brycen Long, Isaac Brice, Matt Beatty, Brayden Barron, Colt Ness, Mozae Downing-Rivers, Kean Webb, Samuel Stewart IV

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRST -12.5	PRST -6.7	OMA +5.8	W OMA covered
Total	144.5	154.2	Over 9.7	L Under
Projected score	—	OMA 73.8 · PRST 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRST -3.9	OMA -5.0
1H total	72.2	55
1H projected score	OMA 34.1 · PRST 38	OMA 30 · PRST 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OMA LLLLL	1-7	13%	1-3	1-6
PRST WWWWW	5-0	100%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: OMA away, as underdog; PRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OMA OOOUU	5-3	63%	1-7
PRST OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OMAlast 8	1-7 13%	1-7 13%	5-3 63%
PRSTlast 5	3-2 60%	5-0 100%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Omaha

8 games played

Straight up

1-7

13% wins

Against the spread

1-7

13% covers · avg −4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-713%

L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-713%

L W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-363%

O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsJMU	L 77-88	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FIU	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsUNCO	L 70-75	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

JMU

L 77-88

−9.5

FIU

L 61-74

−8.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 7avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

JMU

L 77-88

+12.5

FIU

L 61-74

−22.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−12.5

over 5under 3avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

5-0

100% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@STAN	L 79-89	+11.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 12	@SF	L 70-80	+13.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 17	vsCSUB	W 93-80	-8.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 25	@UTU	W 68-63	-1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Dec 3	@SDAK	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+1.5

L 70-80

+3.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+4.5

UTU

W 68-63

+3.5

SDAK

W 77-71

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+23.5

L 70-80

−4.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+31.5

UTU

W 68-63

−15.5

SDAK

W 77-71

−10.5

over 2under 3avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Omaha @ Portland St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Omaha

Portland St

Omaha

Portland St