Le Moyne Dolphins at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#332LEMLe Moyne76▲ winner

Final

#310LAFLafayette63final

Closing lineLAF -4.5✓ LEM covered by 17.5

Closing total151.5Under by 12.5

Season records: Le Moyne and Lafayette
LEM	This season	LAF
1-4	Record	0-5
3-2	ATS	2-3
3-2	O/U	5-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LEM 74–78 LAF · ✗ LAF (66%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LEM	38	38	76
LAF	38	25	63

1st half: LEM 38, LAF 38 (tied). The model had LAF by 2.7 and a total of 71.2 (actual 76).

Team stats

LEM		LAF
29-59 49%	Field goals	20-57 35%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	10-28 36%
14-19 74%	Free throws	13-17 76%
41 11 off	Rebounds	29 9 off
14	Assists	14
8	Steals	6
7	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	13
16	Fouls	15
50	Points in paint	20
8	Fast-break points	7

Players

LEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shilo Jackson F	35	21	15	2	9-13	0-0
Trent Mosquera G	34	9	8	1	3-9	1-5
Jakai Sanders G	33	7	2	6	2-10	0-2
Deng Garang G	25	17	7	0	7-12	2-5
Jakob Blakley G	13	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Tennessee Rainwater F	24	14	6	3	4-6	1-1
Samuel Hincapie G	19	8	2	0	4-6	0-1
Eli Greenberg G	7	0	0	2	0-1	0-1
Trevor Roe F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaac Nyakundi F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josiah Lee, Kaelin Thomas, Sam Donnelly, Nate Fouts, Ametri Moss

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Caleb Williams G	37	18	5	6	5-16	5-13
Andrew Phillips G	36	18	7	2	5-14	4-9
Mark Butler G	35	3	1	2	1-6	0-1
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	25	7	5	0	3-6	1-4
Shareef Jackson F	18	7	4	0	3-6	0-0
Bench
Ryan Pettit G	23	4	3	1	1-4	0-1
Luke Bevilacqua F	19	4	2	3	2-5	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	7	2	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ashton Wallace, Luke Azzinaro, KaiMani Murdock, Beckett Currie, TJ Berger, Joshua Wyche, Misha Bednostin, Luka Savicevic, Chris Rubayo, Malik Rasul, Justin Vander Baan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LAF -4.5	LAF -4.7	LAF +0.2	L LEM covered
Total	151.5	152.0	Over 0.5	L Under
Projected score	—	LEM 73.6 · LAF 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAF -2.7	PK
1H total	71.2	76
1H projected score	LEM 34.3 · LAF 36.9	LEM 38 · LAF 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LEM WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2
LAF WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: LEM away, as underdog; LAF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEM UUOOO	3-2	60%	1-4
LAF OOOOO	5-0	100%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEMlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
LAFlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Le Moyne

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@XAV	L 69-74	+24.5	W +19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 9	@BGSU	L 60-83	+11.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 13	@MASS	L 80-94	+16.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsNIA	W 74-68	-2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsFAIR	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

+19.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+2.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

−13.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+20.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

+34.5

over 3under 2avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-0

100% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-0100%

O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

over 5under 0avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Le Moyne @ Lafayette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Le Moyne

Lafayette

Le Moyne

Lafayette