Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at UC Davis Aggies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 9:00 PM ETUniversity Credit Union Center · at UC Davis

Final

#182UCDUC Davis77▲ winner

Closing lineUCD -9.5✓ UCD covered by 11.5

Closing total136.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Louisiana and UC Davis
UL	This season	UCD
1-5	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UL 63–75 UCD · ✓ UCD (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UL	26	30	56
UCD	33	44	77

1st half: UL 26, UCD 33 (UCD by 7). The model had UCD by 6.9 and a total of 64.7 (actual 59).

Team stats

UL		UCD
20-60 33%	Field goals	24-44 55%
8-28 29%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
8-11 73%	Free throws	22-32 69%
33 12 off	Rebounds	36 6 off
7	Assists	13
4	Steals	4
2	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	10
27	Fouls	10
24	Points in paint	28
0	Fast-break points	21

Players

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Finister G	34	9	5	1	3-11	0-4
Milan Mejia G	30	9	2	1	3-9	3-7
De'vion Lavergne G	28	7	3	0	2-9	2-5
Dariyus Woodson F	24	3	5	1	1-5	0-3
Jeremiah Evans F	16	9	2	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	25	6	3	4	3-10	0-3
Joshua Lewis F	24	11	3	0	3-5	3-5
Kyran Ratliff F	13	2	4	0	1-4	0-0
Todd Jones Jr. F	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Mike Collins G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Rahman Olajuwon, Logan Myers, Karris Bilal, Sean Elkinton, Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Jamyron Keller, Zeke Cook

UCD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Sevilla G	34	12	5	2	3-8	2-7
Marcus Wilson G	31	11	4	2	3-6	2-3
Nils Cooper G	30	18	5	2	6-8	0-1
Niko Rocak F	28	16	5	2	5-7	2-3
Omer Suljanovic F	16	1	4	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Chappell F	28	4	5	2	1-3	0-1
Brayden Fagbemi G	25	10	2	2	4-7	0-1
Jalen Stokes G	5	3	0	0	1-2	1-1
Chase Rawlins G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Abdullah Amzil F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonathan Noudjihidi, Ylan Esso-Essis, Cyril Franklin Jr., Carl Daughtery Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCD -9.5	UCD -11.7	UCD +2.2	W UCD covered
Total	136.5	138.0	Over 1.5	L Under
Projected score	—	UL 63.1 · UCD 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCD -6.9	UCD -7.0
1H total	64.7	59
1H projected score	UL 28.9 · UCD 35.8	UL 26 · UCD 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-4	1-4
UCD WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; UCD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUOOU	2-4	33%	1-5
UCD OUUOO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
UCDlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

over 2under 4avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Davis

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsNDSU	W 80-68	-1.5	W +10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	@PORT	L 63-67	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsSAC	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 18	@NEV	W 75-71	+12.5	W +16.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 21	@COLO	L 79-95	+14.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+10.5

PORT

L 63-67

−2.5

SAC

W 77-73

−0.5

NEV

W 75-71

+16.5

COLO

L 79-95

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 80-68

+5.5

PORT

L 63-67

−21.5

SAC

W 77-73

−1.5

NEV

W 75-71

+2.5

COLO

L 79-95

+21.5

over 3under 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana @ UC Davis

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

UC Davis

Louisiana

UC Davis