Lipscomb Bisons at Marshall Thundering Herd: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 4:00 PM ETCam Henderson Center · at Marshall

#214LIPLipscomb90▲ winner

Final

#231MRSHMarshall67final

Closing lineMRSH -7.5✓ LIP covered by 30.5

Closing total157.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Lipscomb and Marshall
LIP	This season	MRSH
1-4	Record	5-1
3-2	ATS	3-3
2-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIP 74–79 MRSH · ✗ MRSH (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIP	43	47	90
MRSH	27	40	67

1st half: LIP 43, MRSH 27 (LIP by 16). The model had MRSH by 3.3 and a total of 71.6 (actual 70).

Team stats

LIP		MRSH
30-57 53%	Field goals	22-62 35%
13-26 50%	3-pointers	6-26 23%
17-26 65%	Free throws	17-22 77%
35 6 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
19	Assists	9
9	Steals	7
2	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	22
30	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	13

Players

LIP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mateo Esmeraldo G	36	10	1	10	2-6	0-1
Grant Asman F	32	18	6	1	7-9	4-6
Titas Sargiunas F	29	22	5	3	7-9	4-6
Or Ashkenazi F	28	3	7	2	1-3	0-1
Charlie Williams C	11	7	0	1	3-9	1-5
Bench
Ethan Duncan G	21	17	1	1	6-11	3-5
Kellan Boylan F	19	2	6	0	0-2	0-0
Kennedy Okpara F	14	7	1	0	2-4	1-2
Cole Middleton F	10	4	3	1	2-4	0-0

Did not play: Luke Jack, Josh Scott, Devyn Martin, Luke Carter, Miles White, Logan Suber, Ross Candelino

MRSH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Noah Otshudi G	36	18	5	4	5-13	2-4
Wyatt Fricks F	29	16	4	0	7-10	1-3
Jalen Speer G	23	9	3	3	3-13	3-10
Caleb Hollenbeck G	13	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Matt Van Komen C	9	2	4	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Shamarrie Hugie G	19	0	3	0	0-3	0-0
Landen Joseph G	17	4	6	0	2-8	0-4
Wilson Dubinsky G	15	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Erich Harding F	14	5	4	0	1-2	0-0
Kai Spears G	13	9	4	0	1-1	0-0
Bryce Slay G	10	4	3	0	2-7	0-3
Drew Fuquay F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Grant Moore, Will Moore, Kaiden White

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRSH -7.5	MRSH -5.8	LIP +1.8	W LIP covered
Total	157.5	152.9	Under 4.6	W Under
Projected score	—	LIP 73.6 · MRSH 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRSH -3.3	LIP -16.0
1H total	71.6	70
1H projected score	LIP 34.1 · MRSH 37.5	LIP 43 · MRSH 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-2	2-2
MRSH WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: LIP away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP OOUUU	2-3	40%	1-4
MRSH UOOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIPlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
MRSHlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@BEL	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 22	vsWCU	W 83-62	-5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

BEL

L 68-75

+5.5

WCU

W 83-62

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

BEL

L 68-75

−15.5

WCU

W 83-62

−6.5

over 2under 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marshall

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MASS	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	@TOL	W 85-73	+2.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 12	vsELON	W 96-89	-8.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	@UVA	L 78-104	+20.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 20	vsUAPB	W 98-70	-20.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsMERC	W 69-60	-11.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

+10.5

TOL

W 85-73

+14.5

ELON

W 96-89

−1.5

UVA

L 78-104

−5.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+7.5

MERC

W 69-60

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

−2.5

TOL

W 85-73

−2.5

ELON

W 96-89

+29.5

UVA

L 78-104

+26.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+3.5

MERC

W 69-60

−18.5

over 3under 3avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb @ Marshall

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lipscomb

Marshall

Lipscomb

Marshall