Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site
Closing line
HOU -12.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5
HOU -12.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5Closing total148.5Over by 0.5
 FSU | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 7-1 |
| 5-3 | ATS | 2-6 |
| 2-6 | O/U | 4-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 66–79 HOU · ✓ HOU (88%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| HOU | 41 | 41 | 82 |
1st half: FSU 33, HOU 41 (HOU by 8). The model had HOU by 7.9 and a total of 68.2 (actual 74).
Team stats
| FSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-57 39% | Field goals | 32-65 49% |
| 10-32 31% | 3-pointers | 11-29 38% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 7-9 78% |
| 37 16 off | Rebounds | 35 12 off |
| 10 | Assists | 23 |
| 5 | Steals | 15 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert McCray V G | 34 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 6-12 | 2-3 |
| Lajae Jones G | 33 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Martin Somerville G | 29 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Alier Maluk F | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 28 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-12 | 3-10 |
| Cam Miles G | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| AJ Swinton F | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola, Alex Steen
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Sharp G | 38 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 10-17 | 6-12 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 37 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 8-13 | 3-4 |
| Milos Uzan G | 35 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 3-11 | 1-7 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 28 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kalifa Sakho F | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Mercy Miller G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Isiah Harwell G | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Cedric Lath, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -12.5
ModelHOU -13.3
Model edgeHOU +0.8
W HOU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model145.5
Model edgeUnder 3.0
L Over
Projected score
FSU 66.1 · HOU 79.4
FSU 67 · HOU 82
Win probability
HOU 88%
1st half
Spread
HOU -7.9
HOU -8.0
Total
68.2
74 points
Projected score
FSU 30.1 · HOU 38
FSU 33 · HOU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -16.5
4 → FSU
CloseHOU -12.5
4 pts toward FSU
Total
Open146.5
▲ 2
Close148.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
FSU +700 · HOU -1100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -16.5 · closed HOU -12.5 · moved 4 toward FSUmodel HOU -13.5
model HOU -13.5
Opened 146.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 2 upmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSUlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 5-3 63% | 2-6 25% |
| HOUlast 8 | 7-1 88% | 2-6 25% | 4-4 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-6
25% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
over 2under 6avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
8 games played
Straight up
7-1
88% wins
Against the spread
2-6
25% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
over 4under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgia73–107
- Lvs Texas A&M59–95
- Wvs Bakersfield89–59
- Wvs GA Southern98–72
- Wvs UT Martin87–73
4 days since their last game.
Houston
7-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Notre Dame66–56
- Lvs Tennessee73–76
- Wvs Syracuse78–74
- Wvs Rider91–45
- Wvs Auburn73–72
A week or more of rest.