Texas State Bobcats vs Seattle U Redhawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETResorts World Event Center · Neutral site

#103TXSTTexas St52final

Final

#119SEASeattle U66▲ winner

Closing lineSEA -7.5✓ SEA covered by 6.5

Closing total136.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Texas St and Seattle U
TXST	This season	SEA
4-2	Record	4-1
5-1	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TXST 66–72 SEA · ✓ SEA (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TXST	33	19	52
SEA	33	33	66

1st half: TXST 33, SEA 33 (tied). The model had SEA by 3.5 and a total of 65.0 (actual 66).

Team stats

TXST		SEA
22-56 39%	Field goals	25-49 51%
2-11 18%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
6-8 75%	Free throws	10-17 59%
36 13 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
10	Assists	17
4	Steals	8
2	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	10
30	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	5

Players

TXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Franck Emmou G	32	7	5	1	3-6	1-1
Mark Drone G	30	10	1	3	5-11	0-2
DJ Hall F	24	7	6	3	3-7	0-0
Kaden Gumbs G	23	2	1	2	1-4	0-0
Makai Willis C	13	6	2	0	2-5	0-0
Bench
Kyndall Davis G	24	5	6	0	1-6	1-4
Tay Knox C	16	3	4	0	1-2	0-0
Dimp Pernell G	15	6	3	0	3-8	0-1
Jalen Bolden G	12	4	0	1	2-6	0-3
Robert Fields C	11	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jaelyn Lee, Isaiah Barganier, Ky Pernell, Cameron Simpson, Deke Thompson

SEA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Will Heimbrodt F	33	17	3	4	6-9	0-1
Brayden Maldonado G	32	8	5	4	2-9	1-5
Junseok Yeo F	29	16	3	3	6-11	3-5
Maleek Arington G	25	1	2	4	0-3	0-1
Houran Dan C	20	8	1	1	4-5	0-0
Bench
Miles Amos G	20	6	4	0	3-4	0-1
Austin Maurer C	17	4	7	1	2-5	0-1
John Christofilis G	12	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Jojo Murphy G	7	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Brock Felder F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Yuto Kawashima, Eric Zheng, Jeremiah Harshman, Stratos Papastavrou, JT White, Ray Adams

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SEA -7.5	SEA -6.0	TXST +1.5	L SEA covered
Total	136.5	138.7	Over 2.2	L Under
Projected score	—	TXST 66.3 · SEA 72.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEA -3.5	PK
1H total	65.0	66
1H projected score	TXST 30.8 · SEA 34.3	TXST 33 · SEA 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TXST WWWWW	5-1	83%	—	1-1
SEA LLWLW	2-3	40%	—	1-3

Venue/role: TXST neutral site, as underdog; SEA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
SEA OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSTlast 6	4-2 67%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
SEAlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

over 2under 4avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Seattle U

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 21	@STAN	W 77-69	+10.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

STAN

W 77-69

+18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

STAN

W 77-69

−6.5

over 3under 2avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas St vs Seattle U

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas St

Seattle U

Texas St

Seattle U