SIU Edwardsville Cougars at North Florida Ospreys: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETUNF Arena · at North Florida

#256SIUESIUE72▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSIUE -7.5✓ SIUE covered by 1.5

Closing total153.5Under by 18.5

Season records: SIUE and North Florida
SIUE	This season	UNF
3-3	Record	0-5
4-2	ATS	5-0
3-3	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIUE 80–76 UNF · ✓ SIUE (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIUE	30	42	72
UNF	29	34	63

1st half: SIUE 30, UNF 29 (SIUE by 1). The model had SIUE by 2.5 and a total of 73.0 (actual 59).

Team stats

SIUE		UNF
26-64 41%	Field goals	23-57 40%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	10-30 33%
12-19 63%	Free throws	7-7 100%
41 16 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
16	Assists	11
8	Steals	4
6	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	12
9	Fouls	17
30	Points in paint	22
13	Fast-break points	6

Players

SIUE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ring Malith G	33	31	10	2	10-17	2-7
Myles Thompson F	32	6	3	4	2-8	0-1
Jack Campion G	30	5	3	5	2-6	1-3
Jordan Pickett G	29	6	7	1	2-8	2-6
Arnas Sakenis C	24	6	3	0	3-7	0-0
Bench
Darrion Baker F	16	3	4	2	1-4	0-0
Jo Valrie F	15	2	6	0	1-7	0-3
CJ Hall G	11	10	0	1	4-5	2-3
Darius Robinson Jr. G	6	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Tyler King G	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dehrio McCaskill, Corentin Efono, Iwo Baganc, Harrison Alexander, Kyle Thomas

UNF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamrin Oriol G	38	16	4	3	6-13	2-5
Kent Jackson G	31	5	2	4	2-11	1-9
Devin Hines G	24	4	4	1	2-6	0-2
Dalton Gayman F	22	4	3	0	1-5	0-0
Mason Lee G	21	5	4	1	2-5	1-4
Bench
BJ Plummer G	29	10	3	0	4-5	2-3
Trey Cady G	20	16	3	1	5-8	3-3
Nestor Dyachok F	8	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Dante Oliver G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Taylor Thompson G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Arden Begaj, Alex Vargo, Mason Watkins, Gabe Jacobs

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SIUE -7.5	SIUE -4.0	UNF +3.5	L SIUE covered
Total	153.5	155.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	SIUE 79.9 · UNF 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SIUE -2.5	SIUE -1.0
1H total	73.0	59
1H projected score	SIUE 37.8 · UNF 35.2	SIUE 30 · UNF 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIUE LWWLW	4-2	67%	3-1	1-2
UNF WWWWW	5-0	100%	—	5-0

Venue/role: SIUE away, as favorite; UNF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIUE UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
UNF UOOOO	4-1	80%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUElast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%
UNFlast 5	0-5 0%	5-0 100%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SIUE 0–1 UNFUNF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SIUE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2024-25	UNF 78 @ SIUE 73	SIUE +2.5	UNF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SIUE

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UTSA	W 77-60	+6.5	W +23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsINST	L 55-64	-2.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DRKE	W 61-59	+7.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@WIS	L 69-94	+25.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 21	@AF	L 63-77	-2.5	L −16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsALST	W 83-68	-1.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

+23.5

INST

L 55-64

−11.5

DRKE

W 61-59

+9.5

WIS

L 69-94

+0.5

L 63-77

−16.5

ALST

W 83-68

+13.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

−16.5

INST

L 55-64

−40.5

DRKE

W 61-59

−22.5

WIS

L 69-94

+16.5

L 63-77

+9.5

ALST

W 83-68

+8.5

over 3under 3avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Florida

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

5-0

100% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@FLA	L 64-104	+43.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	@TENN	L 66-99	+41.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 19	@WOF	L 78-86	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsUSM	L 83-92	+9.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsPV	L 82-85	+3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

+3.5

TENN

L 66-99

+8.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+0.5

L 82-85

+0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

−1.5

TENN

L 66-99

+9.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+20.5

L 82-85

+6.5

over 4under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SIUE @ North Florida

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SIUE

North Florida

SIUE

North Florida