Buffalo Bulls vs Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 1:30 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#237BUFBuffalo73▲ winner

Final

#299BUCKBucknell71final

Closing lineBUF -4.5✓ BUCK covered by 2.5

Closing total146.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Buffalo and Bucknell
BUF	This season	BUCK
5-0	Record	2-5
5-0	ATS	3-4
3-2	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUF 75–73 BUCK · ✓ BUF (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUF	45	28	73
BUCK	32	39	71

1st half: BUF 45, BUCK 32 (BUF by 13). The model had BUF by 1.7 and a total of 69.3 (actual 77).

Team stats

BUF		BUCK
24-54 44%	Field goals	27-57 47%
11-28 39%	3-pointers	10-27 37%
14-19 74%	Free throws	7-12 58%
29 10 off	Rebounds	35 13 off
11	Assists	16
9	Steals	5
4	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	32
13	Fast-break points	7

Players

BUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daniel Freitag G	38	18	9	3	6-15	4-9
Angelo Brizzi G	37	25	4	2	6-9	3-6
Noah Batchelor G	37	11	0	2	4-7	3-6
Ryan Sabol G	35	4	2	2	1-6	0-5
Tim Oboh F	11	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Mikhali Pocknett F	16	6	8	0	3-7	0-0
Ezra McKenna F	16	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Derrick Talton Jr. G	8	0	0	1	0-3	0-0
Kyle Jones G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Daniel Shao, Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Achile Spadone G	34	9	7	4	4-8	1-3
Brandon McCreesh G	34	20	6	0	7-13	6-10
Amon Dorries C	31	13	3	1	6-11	1-3
Jayden Williams G	30	0	2	7	0-8	0-4
Grgur Brcic F	21	10	7	0	4-4	0-0
Bench
Pat Curtin G	23	12	1	0	3-8	1-4
Josh Fulton G	12	4	2	3	2-2	0-0
Quin Berger G	10	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Aleksander Pachucki G	5	3	1	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Brady Muller, Jacob Meachem, Kellen Welch, Matt Lange, Ruot Bijiek, Patrick O'Brien

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BUF -4.5	BUF -2.6	BUCK +1.9	W BUCK covered
Total	146.5	147.8	Over 1.3	L Under
Projected score	—	BUF 75.2 · BUCK 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BUF -1.7	BUF -13.0
1H total	69.3	77
1H projected score	BUF 35.5 · BUCK 33.8	BUF 45 · BUCK 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BUF WWWWW	5-0	100%	1-0	3-0
BUCK LLLLW	3-4	43%	1-0	2-4

Venue/role: BUF neutral site, as favorite; BUCK neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOUOU	3-2	60%	5-0
BUCK UOUUU	1-6	14%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFlast 5	5-0 100%	5-0 100%	3-2 60%
BUCKlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Buffalo

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-0

100% covers · avg +9.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

over 3under 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

over 1under 6avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Buffalo vs Bucknell

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Buffalo

Bucknell

Buffalo

Bucknell