Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETTruist Arena · at N Kentucky

Final

#230NKUN Kentucky82▲ winner

Closing lineNKU -4.5✓ NKU covered by 6.5

Closing total156.5Under by 3.5

Season records: E Kentucky and N Kentucky
EKU	This season	NKU
0-4	Record	1-2
0-4	ATS	1-2
3-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EKU 75–81 NKU · ✓ NKU (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EKU	35	36	71
NKU	33	49	82

1st half: EKU 35, NKU 33 (EKU by 2). The model had NKU by 3.5 and a total of 73.3 (actual 68).

Team stats

EKU		NKU
25-60 42%	Field goals	27-59 46%
9-33 27%	3-pointers	10-30 33%
12-19 63%	Free throws	18-21 86%
35 12 off	Rebounds	34 9 off
6	Assists	12
6	Steals	9
1	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	32
17	Fast-break points	15

Players

EKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Yvens Paul F	32	6	9	1	3-5	0-0
MJ Williams G	31	7	8	3	3-13	1-8
Jackson Holt G	30	5	8	2	1-8	1-6
Juan Cranford Jr. G	29	18	2	0	6-12	3-8
Austin Ball F	23	0	2	0	0-4	0-3
Bench
Turner Buttry G	30	20	0	0	6-9	3-5
Jayden Harris F	17	13	2	0	6-8	1-3
Asa White C	8	2	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Mason Miles, Montavious Myrick, Tyler Jackson, Amarr Knox, Trey Coles, Rydge Beverly, Jalen Cooper

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
LJ Wells F	37	14	11	1	6-7	0-1
Kael Robinson F	33	17	4	1	7-12	3-5
Dan Gherezgher G	33	19	4	4	7-14	5-9
Tae Dozier G	31	8	4	2	2-6	0-4
Ethan Elliott G	19	0	1	2	0-8	0-4
Bench
Donovan Oday G	26	18	4	2	4-7	2-4
Bryce Darbyshire G	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	6	4	0	0	1-1	0-0
Shawn Nelson G	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Addison Archer F	3	2	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan Tolliver, Mitchel Minor, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NKU -4.5	NKU -6.1	NKU +1.6	W NKU covered
Total	156.5	156.5	—	Under
Projected score	—	EKU 75.2 · NKU 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -3.5	EKU -2.0
1H total	73.3	68
1H projected score	EKU 34.9 · NKU 38.4	EKU 35 · NKU 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3
NKU LLW	1-2	33%	—	—

Venue/role: EKU away, as underdog; NKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU OUOO	3-1	75%	0-4
NKU OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKUlast 4	0-4 0%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
NKUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EKU 1–2 NKUNKU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · NKU has won the last 2 meetings · EKU 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2023-24	NKU 85 @ EKU 75	EKU -2.5	NKU W
Dec 14, 2022-23	EKU 61 @ NKU 64	NKU -6.5	EKU W
Dec 18, 2021-22	NKU 68 @ EKU 81	EKU -6.5	EKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −7.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 18	@KENT	L 78-93	+10.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsMER	L 83-95	-4.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

KENT

L 78-93

−4.5

MER

L 83-95

−16.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

KENT

L 78-93

+9.5

MER

L 83-95

+14.5

over 3under 1avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

over 2under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Kentucky @ N Kentucky

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

N Kentucky

E Kentucky

N Kentucky