McGuirk Arena · at C Michigan
Closing line
CMU -4.5✓ NKU covered by 28.5
CMU -4.5✓ NKU covered by 28.5Closing total146.5Over by 9.5
 NKU | This season | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-2 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NKU 72–76 CMU · ✗ CMU (62%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 44 | 46 | 90 |
| CMU | 30 | 36 | 66 |
1st half: NKU 44, CMU 30 (NKU by 14). The model had CMU by 2.0 and a total of 69.2 (actual 74).
Team stats
| NKU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-64 53% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 13-27 48% | 3-pointers | 5-17 29% |
| 9-13 69% | Free throws | 11-18 61% |
| 32 13 off | Rebounds | 32 12 off |
| 26 | Assists | 17 |
| 14 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 25 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| NKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ Wells F | 32 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Ethan Elliott G | 27 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Kael Robinson F | 26 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-10 | 4-5 |
| Tae Dozier G | 26 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Dan Gherezgher G | 24 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 5-14 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donovan Oday G | 27 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 7-13 | 3-6 |
| Donovan Rakotonanahary F | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Addison Archer F | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Nelson G | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Bryce Darbyshire G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Apathjang, Juanma Ruiz, Ryan Tolliver, Mitchel Minor
| CMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Claerbaut C | 28 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Phat Phat Brooks G | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2-10 | 0-2 |
| Tamario Adley G | 26 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Logan McIntire G | 24 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 3-10 | 3-9 |
| Nick Mullen F | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaxson Whitaker G | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Keenan Garner F | 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Rodney Johnson Jr. F | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Will Ashford G | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Kayden Nation F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jorden Brooks G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kareem Aburashed, Jalen Kampen, Nsikan Usen, Uchenna Amene
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCMU -4.5
ModelCMU -3.6
Model edgeNKU +0.9
W NKU covered
Total
Market146.5
Model147.6
Model edgeOver 1.1
W Over
Projected score
NKU 72 · CMU 75.6
NKU 90 · CMU 66
Win probability
CMU 62%
1st half
Spread
CMU -2.0
NKU -14.0
Total
69.2
74 points
Projected score
NKU 33.6 · CMU 35.6
NKU 44 · CMU 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCMU -4.5
no move
CloseCMU -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open146.5
no move
Close146.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
NKU +155 · CMU -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CMU -4.5 · unchangedmodel CMU -3.5
model CMU -3.5
Opened 146.5 · unchangedmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKUlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% |
| CMUlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% | 1-3 25% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Kentucky
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
0-2
0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
TENN
TENNL 56-95
−11.5
12
@
ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−5.5
covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
+13.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−4.5
over 1under 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
C Michigan
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
APP
APPW 82-66
+14.5
8
@
BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−21.5
13
vs
USA
USAL 64-66
+3.5
14
vs
COPP
COPPW 82-59
+12.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+5.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−8.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
−12.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
−1.5
over 1under 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Kentucky
0-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ ETSU63–75
- L@ Tennessee56–95
A week or more of rest.
C Michigan
2-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Coppin St82–59
- Lvs South Alabama64–66
- L@ Bradley54–85
- Wvs App State82–66
6 days since their last game.