Ball State Cardinals at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:30 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#181BALLBall State37final

Final

#310LAFLafayette55▲ winner

Closing lineBALL -1.5✓ LAF covered by 19.5

Closing total140.5Under by 48.5

Season records: Ball State and Lafayette
BALL	This season	LAF
1-4	Record	0-6
1-4	ATS	2-4
1-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BALL 72–71 LAF · ✗ BALL (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BALL	15	22	37
LAF	23	32	55

1st half: BALL 15, LAF 23 (LAF by 8). The model had BALL by 0.7 and a total of 66.5 (actual 38).

Team stats

BALL		LAF
13-59 22%	Field goals	18-54 33%
3-29 10%	3-pointers	2-14 14%
8-12 67%	Free throws	17-20 85%
42 14 off	Rebounds	46 10 off
5	Assists	4
3	Steals	5
7	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	13
16	Points in paint	32
0	Fast-break points	4

Players

BALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Jones F	33	0	5	1	0-4	0-2
Armoni Zeigler G	32	10	8	1	3-10	0-4
Juwan Maxey G	26	11	2	0	4-12	3-10
Elmore James IV G	23	4	4	0	2-8	0-4
Preston Copeland F	16	2	5	1	1-5	0-0
Bench
Davion Hill G	28	9	7	1	3-9	0-2
Cam Denson F	22	1	4	1	0-6	0-3
Devon Barnes G	15	0	2	0	0-4	0-4
Jai Anthoni Bearden F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Easton Foster F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Alex Farley, Joey Hart, Kody Clancy, Kayden Fish, Zane Doughty

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Phillips G	34	6	5	0	2-13	0-4
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	31	10	10	0	2-4	1-1
Mark Butler G	30	8	1	2	4-8	0-1
Shareef Jackson F	26	11	14	1	3-8	0-0
Ryan Pettit G	23	2	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Caleb Williams G	29	10	3	1	4-16	1-8
Luke Bevilacqua F	12	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Malik Rasul F	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Misha Bednostin C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
KaiMani Murdock F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ashton Wallace G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Azzinaro F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Justin Vander Baan, Beckett Currie, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic, TJ Berger, Joshua Wyche

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BALL -1.5	BALL -0.9	LAF +0.6	W LAF covered
Total	140.5	142.0	Over 1.5	L Under
Projected score	—	BALL 71.5 · LAF 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BALL -0.7	LAF -8.0
1H total	66.5	38
1H projected score	BALL 33.6 · LAF 32.9	BALL 15 · LAF 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-1
LAF LLWLL	2-4	33%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: BALL away, as favorite; LAF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4
LAF OOOOU	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALLlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%
LAFlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ball State

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −10.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUL	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 11	@WIS	L 55-86	+26.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsLR	L 62-68	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 22	@INST	L 52-70	+7.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 28	vsMONM	L 73-80	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 75-64

+6.5

WIS

L 55-86

−4.5

L 62-68

−8.5

INST

L 52-70

−10.5

MONM

L 73-80

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 75-64

−2.5

WIS

L 55-86

−15.5

L 62-68

−16.5

INST

L 52-70

−32.5

MONM

L 73-80

+16.5

over 1under 4avg −10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

over 5under 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ball State @ Lafayette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Ball State

Lafayette

Ball State

Lafayette