Eastern Michigan Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETFifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati

#188EMUE Michigan64▲ winner

Final

Closing lineCIN -22.5✓ EMU covered by 30.5

Closing total146.5Under by 26.5

Season records: E Michigan and Cincinnati
EMU	This season	CIN
3-3	Record	5-1
4-2	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EMU 62–81 CIN · ✗ CIN (96%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EMU	36	28	64
CIN	23	33	56

1st half: EMU 36, CIN 23 (EMU by 13). The model had CIN by 11.7 and a total of 67.0 (actual 59).

Team stats

EMU		CIN
19-44 43%	Field goals	19-56 34%
7-21 33%	3-pointers	7-29 24%
19-22 86%	Free throws	11-14 79%
36 7 off	Rebounds	29 8 off
12	Assists	13
8	Steals	9
4	Blocks	6
17	Turnovers	12
15	Fouls	18
18	Points in paint	24
5	Fast-break points	14

Players

EMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mohammad Habhab F	37	13	5	3	3-12	0-3
Carlos Hart G	34	15	5	3	4-8	2-4
Addison Patterson F	29	7	9	3	2-3	0-1
Jon Sanders II G	24	10	2	2	3-7	2-5
Godslove Nwabude F	22	4	8	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Mehki Ellison G	13	5	0	1	2-4	1-3
Mak Manciel G	12	8	2	0	2-3	2-3
Braelon Green G	12	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Aidan Rubio G	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
John Shanu II C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Merritt Alderink F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Gregory Lawson II G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Mbaye N'Diaye, Cooper Smith

CIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Day Day Thomas G	36	17	5	2	5-13	4-9
Moustapha Thiam C	34	8	2	0	2-5	0-0
Kerr Kriisa G	30	8	4	6	2-6	2-6
Shon Abaev F	27	5	7	1	2-9	1-7
Tyler McKinley F	23	2	2	2	1-4	0-0
Bench
Sencire Harris G	27	12	3	0	5-10	0-1
Keyshuan Tillery G	10	4	1	2	2-4	0-1
Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer G	8	0	2	0	0-5	0-5
Halvine Dzellat C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Celestine, Jalen Haynes, Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Grant Darbyshire, Baba Miller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CIN -22.5	CIN -19.6	EMU +2.9	W EMU covered
Total	146.5	142.9	Under 3.6	W Under
Projected score	—	EMU 61.6 · CIN 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIN -11.7	EMU -13.0
1H total	67.0	59
1H projected score	EMU 27.6 · CIN 39.3	EMU 36 · CIN 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1
CIN LWLLL	2-4	33%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUUOU	2-4	33%	3-3
CIN UUUUO	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
CINlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Michigan

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGAST	W 71-49	-3.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 10	@PITT	L 66-78	+15.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 14	vsIUIN	L 83-90	-4.5	L −11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@DETM	W 72-62	+1.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	vsOAK	W 97-91	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 188
Nov 24	@LOU	L 46-87	+33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

+18.5

PITT

L 66-78

+3.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−11.5

DETM

W 72-62

+11.5

OAK

W 97-91

+7.5

LOU

L 46-87

−7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GAST

W 71-49

−29.5

PITT

L 66-78

+2.5

IUIN

L 83-90

−13.5

DETM

W 72-62

−23.5

OAK

W 97-91

+34.5

LOU

L 46-87

−29.5

over 2under 4avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cincinnati

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWCU	W 94-63	-22.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsGAST	W 74-64	-29.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 11	vsDAY	W 74-62	-5.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 16	vsMSM	W 72-55	-25.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsLOU	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsNJIT	W 94-67	-34.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+8.5

GAST

W 74-64

−19.5

DAY

W 74-62

+6.5

MSM

W 72-55

−8.5

LOU

L 64-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 94-67

−7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+13.5

GAST

W 74-64

−13.5

DAY

W 74-62

−11.5

MSM

W 72-55

−18.5

LOU

L 64-74

−25.5

NJIT

W 94-67

+19.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Michigan @ Cincinnati

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Michigan

Cincinnati

E Michigan

Cincinnati