Patrick Gymnasium · at Vermont
Closing line
YALE -6.5✓ UVM covered by 3.5
YALE -6.5✓ UVM covered by 3.5Closing total147.5Over by 3.5
| YALE | This season | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 6-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: YALE 81–74 UVM · ✓ YALE (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE | 35 | 42 | 77 |
| UVM | 31 | 43 | 74 |
1st half: YALE 35, UVM 31 (YALE by 4). The model had YALE by 4.3 and a total of 72.9 (actual 66).
Team stats
| YALE | UVM | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 24-49 49% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 17-22 77% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 25 7 off | Rebounds | 31 8 off |
| 12 | Assists | 8 |
| 6 | Steals | 2 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| YALE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Townsend F | 33 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 5-10 | 1-2 |
| Isaac Celiscar F | 29 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Casey Simmons G | 29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Samson Aletan C | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Trevor Mullin G | 25 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Riley Fox F | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 9-14 | 2-4 |
| Jordan Brathwaite G | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Devon Arlington G | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jack Sullivan, Daniel Ogunyemi, Alvin Loving, Jacob Tsai, Courtney Wallace, Jeannot Basima
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Yalden F | 32 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 8-14 | 1-5 |
| TJ Hurley G | 31 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 4-9 |
| Sean Blake G | 29 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Noah Barnett F | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Skipper F | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| TJ Long G | 30 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 5-12 | 4-10 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Momo Nkugwa G | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Ben Johnson G | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| David Simon F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Lucas Mari, Sincere Clemons, Drew Bessette, Ben Wesson, Chris Kuzemka, Trey Woodyard
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketYALE -6.5
ModelYALE -6.8
Model edgeYALE +0.3
L UVM covered
Total
Market147.5
Model155.7
Model edgeOver 8.2
W Over
Projected score
YALE 81.3 · UVM 74.4
YALE 77 · UVM 74
Win probability
YALE 72%
1st half
Spread
YALE -4.3
YALE -4.0
Total
72.9
66 points
Projected score
YALE 38.6 · UVM 34.3
YALE 35 · UVM 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenYALE -6.5
no move
CloseYALE -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open154.5
▼ 7
Close147.5
Down 7 since the open
Moneyline
YALE -280 · UVM +230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened YALE -6.5 · unchangedmodel YALE -7
model YALE -7
Opened 154.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 7 downmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALElast 7 | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% |
| UVMlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 2-4 33% | 6-0 100% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
YALE 2–2 UVMSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · YALE 3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | UVM 50 @ YALE 65 | YALE -5.5 | YALE W |
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | YALE 65 @ UVM 66 | UVM -1.5 | YALE W |
| Nov 22, 2022-23 | UVM 44 @ YALE 73 | YALE +1.5 | YALE W |
| Nov 19, 2021-22 | YALE 53 @ UVM 61 | UVM -5.5 | UVM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Yale
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ NAVY | W 97-68 | -5.5 | W +23.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ QUIN | W 97-60 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 156.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 15 | vs STBK | W 86-79 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 18 | vs URI | L 77-86 | -8.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | vs GB | W 73-67 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs COFC | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 24 | vs AKR | W 97-94 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@NAVY
NAVYW 97-68
+23.5
11
@QUIN
QUINW 97-60
+30.5
15
vsSTBK
STBKW 86-79
−13.5
18
vsURI
URIL 77-86
−17.5
21
vsGB
GBW 73-67
−11.5
23
vsCOFC
COFCW 74-63
+4.5
24
vsAKR
AKRW 97-94
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@NAVY
NAVYW 97-68
+17.5
11
@QUIN
QUINW 97-60
+0.5
15
vsSTBK
STBKW 86-79
+14.5
18
vsURI
URIL 77-86
+9.5
21
vsGB
GBW 73-67
−8.5
23
vsCOFC
COFCW 74-63
−11.5
24
vsAKR
AKRW 97-94
+34.5
over 5under 2avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Vermont
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-0
100% overs · avg +22 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@
BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@
NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
18
@
BUF
BUFL 90-94
−5.5
24
vs
LIB
LIBL 73-79
+2.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
−10.5
26
vs
PRIN
PRINW 79-74
−0.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
+42.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+10.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
+0.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
+12.5
over 6under 0avg +22 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Yale
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Akron97–94
- Wvs Charleston74–63
- Wvs Green Bay73–67
- Lvs Rhode Island77–86
- Wvs Stony Brook86–79
6 days since their last game.
Vermont
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Princeton79–74
- Lvs Rhode Island65–80
- Lvs Liberty73–79
- L@ Buffalo90–94
- W@ Northeastern85–74
4 days since their last game.