Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 1:00 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#62RUTGRutgers63final

Final

#71NDNotre Dame68▲ winner

Closing lineND -6.5✓ RUTG covered by 1.5

Closing total140.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Rutgers and Notre Dame
RUTG	This season	ND
4-2	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RUTG 71–76 ND · ✓ ND (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RUTG	24	39	63
ND	36	32	68

1st half: RUTG 24, ND 36 (ND by 12). The model had ND by 3.1 and a total of 68.6 (actual 60).

Team stats

RUTG		ND
20-51 39%	Field goals	27-55 49%
11-27 41%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
12-17 71%	Free throws	6-9 67%
28 11 off	Rebounds	37 13 off
12	Assists	11
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	16
14	Fouls	14
16	Points in paint	36
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Grant F	34	15	7	2	5-8	3-5
Jamichael Davis G	33	21	3	3	7-12	5-7
Denis Badalau F	25	5	3	2	2-6	1-4
Tariq Francis G	22	10	1	2	2-7	1-3
Emmanuel Ogbole C	12	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	19	4	2	0	2-5	0-0
Harun Zrno G	17	3	1	2	1-5	1-5
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	14	3	0	0	1-3	0-0
Chris Nwuli F	9	2	1	0	0-1	0-0
Lino Mark G	8	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Kaden Powers G	4	0	0	0	0-3	0-3
Gevonte Ware C	3	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Max Fradkin, Dorian Jones, Baye Fall

ND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Markus Burton G	34	21	6	5	9-13	2-4
Braeden Shrewsberry G	33	13	2	1	5-11	3-6
Jalen Haralson G	29	15	1	1	6-12	0-0
Carson Towt F	24	2	6	0	1-3	0-0
Sir Mohammed G	23	6	4	3	2-2	0-0
Bench
Garrett Sundra F	17	5	4	0	2-5	1-2
Kebba Njie F	14	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Cole Certa G	11	0	1	1	0-4	0-3
Logan Imes G	11	3	3	0	1-2	1-1
Brady Koehler F	3	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Ryder Frost F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Brady Stevens

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ND -6.5	ND -5.4	RUTG +1.1	W RUTG covered
Total	140.5	146.5	Over 6.0	L Under
Projected score	—	RUTG 70.5 · ND 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ND -3.1	ND -12.0
1H total	68.6	60
1H projected score	RUTG 32.8 · ND 35.8	RUTG 24 · ND 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RUTG LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	0-1
ND WLWLL	3-3	50%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: RUTG neutral site, as underdog; ND neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
ND OUUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTGlast 6	4-2 67%	1-5 17%	4-2 67%
NDlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RUTG 1–1 NDSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · RUTG 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	ND 84 vs RUTG 85	RUTG -1.5	ND W
Mar 16, 2021-22	ND 89 vs RUTG 87	RUTG -1	ND W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rutgers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

over 4under 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Notre Dame

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	vsKU	L 61-71	+5.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

L 61-71

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

L 61-71

−11.5

over 3under 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rutgers vs Notre Dame

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rutgers

Notre Dame

Rutgers

Notre Dame