Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Kansas Jayhawks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 3:30 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

Final

#16KUKansas71▲ winner

Closing lineKU -5.5✓ KU covered by 4.5

Closing total143.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Notre Dame and Kansas
ND	This season	KU
4-1	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	2-3
3-2	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ND 69–78 KU · ✓ KU (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ND	32	29	61
KU	39	32	71

1st half: ND 32, KU 39 (KU by 7). The model had KU by 5.1 and a total of 68.9 (actual 71).

Team stats

ND		KU
22-64 34%	Field goals	28-60 47%
4-24 17%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
13-15 87%	Free throws	9-13 69%
34 10 off	Rebounds	44 10 off
6	Assists	16
7	Steals	2
4	Blocks	8
5	Turnovers	9
13	Fouls	11
34	Points in paint	38
10	Fast-break points	6

Players

ND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Markus Burton G	35	24	3	1	9-18	0-3
Braeden Shrewsberry G	34	9	2	1	3-9	3-9
Carson Towt F	28	2	10	2	1-4	0-0
Jalen Haralson G	25	13	5	1	5-14	0-2
Garrett Sundra F	23	2	3	0	1-6	0-2
Bench
Cole Certa G	21	5	1	1	1-5	1-5
Sir Mohammed G	14	4	5	0	2-6	0-1
Kebba Njie F	10	2	3	0	0-0	0-0
Brady Koehler F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ryder Frost F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Logan Imes G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Brady Stevens, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melvin Council Jr. G	38	12	5	4	5-11	2-6
Bryson Tiller F	35	17	9	2	8-15	0-5
Flory Bidunga F	34	18	9	5	8-15	0-0
Tre White G	34	16	9	2	5-12	2-3
Kohl Rosario G	19	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Jamari McDowell G	18	5	2	1	1-4	1-3
Elmarko Jackson G	14	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Jayden Dawson G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Samis Calderon F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Will Thengvall, Paul Mbiya, Nginyu Ngala, Corbin Allen, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers, Darryn Peterson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KU -5.5	KU -8.6	KU +3.1	W KU covered
Total	143.5	147.1	Over 3.6	L Under
Projected score	—	ND 69.2 · KU 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -5.1	KU -7.0
1H total	68.9	71
1H projected score	ND 31.9 · KU 37	ND 32 · KU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND WWLWL	3-2	60%	—	1-0
KU WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: ND neutral site, as underdog; KU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1
KU UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
KUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Notre Dame

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIU	W 89-67	-15.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 7	vsDETM	W 102-70	-21.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsEIU	W 78-58	-23.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 16	@OSU	L 63-64	+9.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 127
Nov 19	vsBELL	W 86-79	-24.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+6.5

DETM

W 102-70

+10.5

EIU

W 78-58

−3.5

OSU

L 63-64

+8.5

BELL

W 86-79

−17.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIU

W 89-67

+20.5

DETM

W 102-70

+24.5

EIU

W 78-58

−7.5

OSU

L 63-64

−29.5

BELL

W 86-79

+14.5

over 3under 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −9.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

over 1under 4avg −9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Notre Dame vs Kansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Notre Dame

Kansas

Notre Dame

Kansas