Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ETLenovo Center · at NC State

#160LIBLiberty45final

Final

#48NCSUNC State85▲ winner

Closing lineNCSU -12.5✓ NCSU covered by 27.5

Closing total149.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Liberty and NC State
LIB	This season	NCSU
4-2	Record	6-3
3-3	ATS	4-5
4-2	O/U	5-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIB 72–84 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIB	19	26	45
NCSU	45	40	85

1st half: LIB 19, NCSU 45 (NCSU by 26). The model had NCSU by 7.1 and a total of 72.5 (actual 64).

Team stats

LIB		NCSU
18-51 35%	Field goals	31-60 52%
6-28 21%	3-pointers	10-24 42%
3-10 30%	Free throws	13-19 68%
31 6 off	Rebounds	42 9 off
14	Assists	17
3	Steals	9
3	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	8
17	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	42
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

LIB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zach Cleveland F	33	0	7	5	0-2	0-0
Kaden Metheny G	29	3	1	2	1-8	1-6
JJ Harper G	29	12	4	0	6-9	0-3
Brett Decker Jr. G	28	12	2	1	4-12	3-8
Colin Porter G	26	5	1	3	2-5	1-4
Bench
Zander Carter G	18	4	1	0	2-6	0-2
Zander Yates F	9	3	1	2	1-3	1-3
Josh Smith F	9	2	3	0	0-1	0-1
Ryan Jones Jr. F	6	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Drew Grimes F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Brady Kester F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
TJ Drain F	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
JC Shirer Jr. G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Torr Sorensen F	2	2	0	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Isaiah Ihnen

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quadir Copeland G	24	11	7	7	4-6	1-2
Tre Holloman G	24	11	0	2	4-7	1-4
Ven-Allen Lubin F	19	13	6	0	6-9	0-0
Darrion Williams F	19	9	8	3	3-9	1-3
Paul McNeil Jr. G	17	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Bench
Terrance Arceneaux G	23	8	3	0	2-4	2-3
Alyn Breed G	18	6	2	3	3-6	0-2
Matt Able G	18	13	4	1	4-6	1-2
Musa Sagnia C	16	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Jerry Deng F	10	3	2	1	1-4	1-2
Scottie Ebube C	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Jordan Snell G	4	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Colt Langdon F	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -12.5	NCSU -12.0	LIB +0.5	L NCSU covered
Total	149.5	154.9	Over 5.4	L Under
Projected score	—	LIB 71.5 · NCSU 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCSU -7.1	NCSU -26.0
1H total	72.5	64
1H projected score	LIB 32.7 · NCSU 39.8	LIB 19 · NCSU 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WLLLW	3-3	50%	—	—
NCSU LWLLL	4-5	44%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: LIB away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2
NCSU OUOUU	5-4	56%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	4-2 67%
NCSUlast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Liberty

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

over 4under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC State

9 games played

Straight up

6-3

67% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-367%

W W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-544%

W W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-456%

O O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	vsUNCA	W 75-63	-28.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−16.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−17.5

over 5under 4avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Liberty @ NC State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Liberty

NC State

Liberty

NC State