Duke Blue Devils vs Arkansas Razorbacks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · Neutral site

#3DUKEDuke AP #480▲ winner

Final

#18ARKArkansas AP #2271final

Closing lineDUKE -12.5✓ ARK covered by 3.5

Closing total159.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Duke and Arkansas
DUKE	This season	ARK
7-0	Record	5-1
6-1	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DUKE 83–74 ARK · ✓ DUKE (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DUKE	41	39	80
ARK	35	36	71

1st half: DUKE 41, ARK 35 (DUKE by 6). The model had DUKE by 5.8 and a total of 73.6 (actual 76).

Team stats

DUKE		ARK
29-59 49%	Field goals	26-64 41%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	10-30 33%
14-21 67%	Free throws	9-11 82%
37 12 off	Rebounds	29 10 off
16	Assists	17
6	Steals	8
1	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	12
13	Fouls	18
42	Points in paint	28
5	Fast-break points	14

Players

DUKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Boozer F	36	35	9	3	13-18	2-4
Caleb Foster G	33	15	5	8	5-10	2-3
Isaiah Evans G	32	9	5	0	3-10	3-9
Patrick Ngongba II C	29	11	5	2	4-8	1-2
Dame Sarr F	17	4	2	0	2-6	0-3
Bench
Nik Khamenia F	28	4	5	0	1-4	0-2
Maliq Brown F	15	2	4	3	1-1	0-0
Cayden Boozer G	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Darren Harris G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Jack Scott

ARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darius Acuff Jr. G	38	21	2	5	8-17	4-8
Trevon Brazile F	34	11	11	2	3-7	2-5
Karter Knox G	23	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Nick Pringle F	19	3	1	2	1-3	0-0
DJ Wagner G	16	3	1	3	1-5	0-3
Bench
Meleek Thomas G	26	13	1	2	5-15	3-10
Billy Richmond III G	24	11	5	2	4-6	1-2
Malique Ewin F	20	7	3	1	3-7	0-0

Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown, Isaiah Sealy

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUKE -12.5	DUKE -9.4	ARK +3.1	W ARK covered
Total	159.5	157.2	Under 2.3	W Under
Projected score	—	DUKE 83.3 · ARK 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUKE -5.8	DUKE -6.0
1H total	73.6	76
1H projected score	DUKE 39.7 · ARK 33.9	DUKE 41 · ARK 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DUKE WWWWL	6-1	86%	2-0	6-1
ARK LWLLW	3-3	50%	—	0-1

Venue/role: DUKE neutral site, as favorite; ARK neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUUUU	1-6	14%	7-0
ARK UUUUO	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKElast 7	7-0 100%	6-1 86%	1-6 14%
ARKlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DUKE 1–1 ARKSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · DUKE 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2023-24	DUKE 75 @ ARK 80	ARK +4.5	ARK W
Mar 26, 2021-22	ARK 69 vs DUKE 78	DUKE -4.5	DUKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Duke

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +6.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-614%

U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 18	vsKU	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 100-42	-39.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 23	vsHOW	W 93-56	-43.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

W 78-66

+1.5

NIA

W 100-42

+18.5

HOW

W 93-56

−6.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

W 78-66

−5.5

NIA

W 100-42

−4.5

HOW

W 93-56

−5.5

over 1under 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSOU	W 109-77	-26.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 8	@MSU	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsCARK	W 93-56	-35.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 14	vsSAM	W 79-75	-24.5	L −20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsWIN	W 84-83	-23.5	L −22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 21	vsJKST	W 115-61	-29.5	W +24.5	159.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+5.5

MSU

L 66-69

−0.5

CARK

W 93-56

+1.5

SAM

W 79-75

−20.5

WIN

W 84-83

−22.5

JKST

W 115-61

+24.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+35.5

MSU

L 66-69

−20.5

CARK

W 93-56

−9.5

SAM

W 79-75

−4.5

WIN

W 84-83

−1.5

JKST

W 115-61

+16.5

over 2under 4avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Duke vs Arkansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Duke

Arkansas

Duke

Arkansas