St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Florida Atlantic Owls: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 3:30 PM ETAbessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena · at FAU

Final

#109FAUFAU65final

Closing lineFAU -1.5✓ SBU covered by 6.5

Closing total146.5Under by 11.5

Season records: St Bonaventure and FAU
SBU	This season	FAU
6-1	Record	4-2
2-5	ATS	4-2
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SBU 73–77 FAU · ✗ FAU (65%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SBU	34	36	70
FAU	32	33	65

1st half: SBU 34, FAU 32 (SBU by 2). The model had FAU by 2.5 and a total of 70.1 (actual 66).

Team stats

SBU		FAU
25-47 53%	Field goals	24-59 41%
6-14 43%	3-pointers	8-27 30%
14-22 64%	Free throws	9-14 64%
29 4 off	Rebounds	37 14 off
13	Assists	11
8	Steals	7
4	Blocks	8
12	Turnovers	13
15	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	28
15	Fast-break points	11

Players

SBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cayden Charles G	35	16	5	1	4-7	1-2
Frank Mitchell F	34	13	11	3	5-12	0-0
Dasonte Bowen G	32	10	3	4	4-5	0-0
Darryl Simmons II G	18	2	0	3	1-5	0-2
Joe Grahovac F	15	5	1	0	2-2	1-1
Bench
Daniel Egbuniwe F	25	9	5	1	4-7	1-4
Achille Lonati G	19	13	0	0	4-6	3-4
Ilia Ermakov G	11	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Andrew Osasuyi F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Amar'e Marshall G	5	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: John Ikpotokin, Brayden Jackson, Xander Wedlow, Jack DeRose, Broek Ostrom

FAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kanaan Carlyle G	38	9	2	5	3-11	1-6
Devin Vanterpool G	37	17	10	3	6-13	3-8
Devin Williams F	24	3	4	1	1-1	0-0
Isaiah Elohim G	23	7	2	0	3-7	1-2
Xander Pintelon F	21	8	4	0	2-9	1-6
Bench
Niccolo Moretti G	21	1	2	2	0-6	0-2
Amar Amkou G	19	12	3	0	5-7	2-3
Maxim Logue F	16	8	6	0	4-5	0-0
Yohann Sissoko G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Lachlan Smith, Josiah Parker, Vincent Neugebauer, Zion Sampaio, Max Langenfeld, Liam Dayco-Green

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAU -1.5	FAU -4.3	FAU +2.8	L SBU covered
Total	146.5	149.8	Over 3.3	L Under
Projected score	—	SBU 72.7 · FAU 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAU -2.5	SBU -2.0
1H total	70.1	66
1H projected score	SBU 33.8 · FAU 36.3	SBU 34 · FAU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SBU LLWLL	2-5	29%	—	0-1
FAU WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: SBU away, as underdog; FAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1
FAU OOUUU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBUlast 7	6-1 86%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%
FAUlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SBU 0–1 FAUFAU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SBU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	FAU 64 vs SBU 54	SBU +9.5	FAU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

over 4under 3avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

FAU

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBC	W 83-78	-1.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsCOFC	W 94-77	-5.5	W +11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 9	@LIB	L 68-88	+7.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 20	vsPAC	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLMU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGMU	L 65-74	+4.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 83-78

+3.5

COFC

W 94-77

+11.5

LIB

L 68-88

−12.5

PAC

W 82-59

+15.5

LMU

W 76-65

+7.5

GMU

L 65-74

−4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 83-78

+12.5

COFC

W 94-77

+14.5

LIB

L 68-88

+3.5

PAC

W 82-59

−13.5

LMU

W 76-65

−3.5

GMU

L 65-74

−4.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure @ FAU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

FAU

St Bonaventure

FAU