William & Mary Tribe at Duquesne Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETUPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · at Duquesne

Final

#107DUQDuquesne79final

Closing lineDUQ -5.5✓ W&M covered by 9.5

Closing total170.5Under by 8.5

Season records: William & Mary and Duquesne
W&M	This season	DUQ
5-2	Record	4-2
6-1	ATS	2-4
3-4	O/U	6-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: W&M 82–85 DUQ · ✗ DUQ (62%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
W&M	48	35	83
DUQ	40	39	79

1st half: W&M 48, DUQ 40 (W&M by 8). The model had DUQ by 1.9 and a total of 78.1 (actual 88).

Team stats

W&M		DUQ
28-55 51%	Field goals	27-59 46%
15-30 50%	3-pointers	8-29 28%
12-14 86%	Free throws	17-24 71%
24 4 off	Rebounds	36 13 off
20	Assists	13
9	Steals	9
1	Blocks	3
18	Turnovers	21
19	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	36
14	Fast-break points	10

Players

W&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jo'el Emanuel F	30	12	2	1	3-7	2-2
Kilian Brockhoff F	27	14	1	4	5-7	4-6
Chase Lowe G	26	8	6	7	4-6	0-0
Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F	26	17	1	2	6-11	3-6
Cade Haskins F	23	16	1	1	6-10	4-8
Bench
Reese Miller G	28	10	3	3	3-8	2-5
Ryan Jackson Jr. G	21	4	3	2	1-3	0-0
Jhei-R Jones G	17	2	1	0	0-2	0-2
Kaleb Spencer F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Kyle Frazier, Colin Lamine Ndaw, Kyle Pulliam, Finn Lally, Miles Hicks, Ethan Connery

DUQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tarence Guinyard G	32	13	2	4	5-12	1-5
Jakub Necas F	27	11	3	0	2-3	1-2
Jimmie Williams G	23	16	5	1	7-13	1-6
Cam Crawford G	19	3	5	2	1-4	1-4
John Hugley IV F	17	2	4	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Maximus Edwards G	26	8	7	2	3-11	1-4
David Dixon F	23	11	3	1	4-5	0-0
Jake DiMichele G	16	3	2	1	1-3	1-3
Alex Williams F	13	12	2	0	4-6	2-4
Brandon Hall G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dom Aekins G	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Lucas Prolla, Stef van Bussel, Seamus McDermott, Ethan Anish, Frederik Jellum, Lazar Milosevic, Arness Lawson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUQ -5.5	DUQ -3.5	W&M +2.0	W W&M covered
Total	170.5	166.9	Under 3.6	W Under
Projected score	—	W&M 81.7 · DUQ 85.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUQ -1.9	W&M -8.0
1H total	78.1	88
1H projected score	W&M 38.1 · DUQ 40	W&M 48 · DUQ 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
W&M LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	3-1
DUQ LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: W&M away, as underdog; DUQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
W&M UUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
DUQ OOOOO	6-0	100%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
W&Mlast 7	5-2 71%	6-1 86%	3-4 43%
DUQlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	6-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

William & Mary

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsODU	W 88-75	-8.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

ODU

W 88-75

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

ODU

W 88-75

−0.5

over 3under 4avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duquesne

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-0

100% overs · avg +15 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-0100%

O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNIA	W 83-63	-17.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsSHU	W 92-80	-12.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsQUC	W 87-81	-12.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	@VILL	L 77-87	+10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsL-MD	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsNE	L 86-93	-7.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+2.5

SHU

W 92-80

−0.5

QUC

W 87-81

−6.5

VILL

L 77-87

+0.5

L-MD

W 92-78

−0.5

L 86-93

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+6.5

SHU

W 92-80

+14.5

QUC

W 87-81

+5.5

VILL

L 77-87

+12.5

L-MD

W 92-78

+19.5

L 86-93

+31.5

over 6under 0avg +15 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

William & Mary @ Duquesne

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

William & Mary

Duquesne

William & Mary

Duquesne