North Florida Ospreys at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 7:00 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

Final

#91DAYDayton84▲ winner

Closing lineDAY -30.5✓ UNF covered by 7.5

Closing total159.5Under by 14.5

Season records: North Florida and Dayton
UNF	This season	DAY
0-7	Record	7-3
5-2	ATS	5-5
5-2	O/U	5-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNF 68–93 DAY · ✓ DAY (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNF	23	38	61
DAY	46	38	84

1st half: UNF 23, DAY 46 (DAY by 23). The model had DAY by 14.9 and a total of 75.5 (actual 69).

Team stats

UNF		DAY
21-62 34%	Field goals	34-65 52%
8-29 28%	3-pointers	8-29 28%
11-16 69%	Free throws	8-17 47%
37 15 off	Rebounds	43 14 off
9	Assists	18
6	Steals	11
1	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	52
6	Fast-break points	19

Players

UNF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamrin Oriol G	38	12	4	4	4-14	2-7
Kent Jackson G	32	6	2	2	2-11	2-10
Dalton Gayman F	21	7	7	0	3-5	0-0
Mason Lee G	20	2	4	0	1-4	0-1
Devin Hines G	15	5	2	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
BJ Plummer G	26	11	3	2	4-9	2-5
Nestor Dyachok F	20	6	4	0	3-3	0-0
Trey Cady G	14	9	3	0	3-11	2-4
Dante Oliver G	12	3	3	1	0-1	0-1
Taylor Thompson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gabe Jacobs, Mason Watkins, Alex Vargo, Arden Begaj

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Derkack G	29	2	4	5	1-2	0-0
Amal L'Etang F	26	14	14	2	6-12	0-4
Javon Bennett G	23	10	2	1	4-10	2-6
De'Shayne Montgomery G	21	23	2	0	9-10	4-4
Keonte Jones G	21	6	5	3	3-4	0-0
Bench
Jacob Conner F	23	5	3	3	2-6	1-5
Bryce Heard G	19	7	3	2	1-5	0-3
Jaiun Simon F	18	0	3	1	0-4	0-3
Malcolm Thomas F	14	14	1	1	7-8	0-1
Evan Dickey G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Makai Grant G	2	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Damon Friery F	2	0	2	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Adam Njie, Jaron McKie, Will Maxwell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAY -30.5	DAY -25.0	UNF +5.5	W UNF covered
Total	159.5	161.3	Over 1.8	L Under
Projected score	—	UNF 68.2 · DAY 93.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -14.9	DAY -23.0
1H total	75.5	69
1H projected score	UNF 30.3 · DAY 45.2	UNF 23 · DAY 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNF WWWLL	5-2	71%	3-1	5-2
DAY LWWWL	5-5	50%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: UNF away, as underdog; DAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNF OOOUO	5-2	71%	0-7
DAY UOOOO	5-5	50%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNFlast 7	0-7 0%	5-2 71%	5-2 71%
DAY	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Florida

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@FLA	L 64-104	+43.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	@TENN	L 66-99	+41.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 19	@WOF	L 78-86	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsUSM	L 83-92	+9.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsPV	L 82-85	+3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 167
Dec 2	vsSIUE	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 135
Dec 7	@GONZ	L 58-109	+42.5	L −8.5	166.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

+3.5

TENN

L 66-99

+8.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+0.5

L 82-85

+0.5

SIUE

L 63-72

−1.5

GONZ

L 58-109

−8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

−1.5

TENN

L 66-99

+9.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+20.5

L 82-85

+6.5

SIUE

L 63-72

−18.5

GONZ

L 58-109

+0.5

over 5under 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-5

50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-550%

W L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-550%

U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 2	vsETSU	W 88-71	-11.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsUVA	L 73-86	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+5.5

UVA

L 73-86

−7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

ETSU

W 88-71

+18.5

UVA

L 73-86

+11.5

over 5under 5avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Florida @ Dayton

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Florida

Dayton

North Florida

Dayton