Bryant Bulldogs at Harvard Crimson: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETLavietes Pavilion · at Harvard

#290BRYBryant53final

Final

#136HARVHarvard56▲ winner

Closing lineHARV -7.5✓ BRY covered by 4.5

Closing total137.5Under by 28.5

Season records: Bryant and Harvard
BRY	This season	HARV
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BRY 67–74 HARV · ✓ HARV (74%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BRY	25	28	53
HARV	26	30	56

1st half: BRY 25, HARV 26 (HARV by 1). The model had HARV by 4.3 and a total of 65.8 (actual 51).

Team stats

BRY		HARV
19-58 33%	Field goals	24-58 41%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
6-7 86%	Free throws	2-2 100%
34 12 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
12	Assists	13
9	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	10
8	Fouls	7
18	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	0

Players

BRY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ty Tabales G	36	15	1	6	5-15	5-12
Timofei Rudovskii F	35	15	8	3	5-10	3-5
Ashley Sims II F	34	2	6	1	1-8	0-3
Keegan Harvey F	32	8	10	0	3-9	0-1
Jakai Robinson G	21	4	4	2	1-4	0-1
Bench
Aaron Davis III G	21	5	1	0	2-6	1-4
Lennart Weber F	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Gio Sanford G	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Ethane Bourgade F	6	2	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Jaheim Nyam, Quincy Allen, Michael DeOrsey, Reed Woerner, Daniel Akoue, Joe Green, Jason Sepe, Langston Bailey, Frankie Vassalluzzo, Khalil Williams

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chandler Pigge G	37	15	5	5	7-12	1-2
Robert Hinton G	36	11	8	2	4-12	1-3
Tey Barbour G	33	10	7	3	4-10	2-7
Ben Eisendrath G	33	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Thomas Batties II F	31	12	9	1	5-10	2-3
Bench
Austin Hunt G	15	4	4	2	2-7	0-2
Ryan Sullivan F	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Kenan Parrish F	4	4	1	0	2-5	0-0
Frankie Mannino G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Xavier Nesbitt G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Avner Dror, Joseph Quartey, Payton Pitts, Greg Cooper, Alex Touomou, Dutch Dowdell, Luca Ace-Nasteski

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HARV -7.5	HARV -7.4	BRY +0.1	W BRY covered
Total	137.5	140.4	Over 2.9	L Under
Projected score	—	BRY 66.5 · HARV 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -4.3	HARV -1.0
1H total	65.8	51
1H projected score	BRY 30.7 · HARV 35	BRY 25 · HARV 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRY LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-3	2-3
HARV WWWLL	3-4	43%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: BRY away, as underdog; HARV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRY UOUUU	1-5	17%	1-5
HARV UUOOU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRYlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
HARVlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bryant

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −13.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SIE	L 66-82	+13.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 7	@GT	L 45-74	+15.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 12	vsDART	W 82-75	-1.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 16	@VAL	L 50-68	+6.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 118
Nov 19	@VT	L 61-78	+24.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 23	@CONN	L 49-72	+36.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−2.5

L 45-74

−13.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−11.5

L 61-78

+7.5

CONN

L 49-72

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 66-82

−0.5

L 45-74

−19.5

DART

W 82-75

+5.5

VAL

L 50-68

−25.5

L 61-78

−12.5

CONN

L 49-72

−26.5

over 1under 5avg −13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Harvard

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

over 3under 4avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bryant @ Harvard

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bryant

Harvard

Bryant

Harvard