Brooklyn Athletic Center · at Long Island · Conference game
Line
LIU -10.5no move
LIU -10.5no moveTotal144.5up 1 from 143.5
 WAG | This season | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-12 | Record | 12-8 |
| 8-7 | ATS | 9-11 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 9-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects LIU 78–68 · win probability LIU 80%
Line
LIU -10.5
no move since the open
Total
144.5
model 145.6 · Over by 1
Model edge
WAG by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: LIU has more of the edges
WAG 2, LIU 6 · 2025-26 so far
LIUSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: WAG 18.6%, LIU 19.0%. Forced: WAG 14.9%, LIU 18.7%
LIUSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: WAG 32.4, LIU 34.0. Allowed: WAG 40.8, LIU 34.7
LIUSmallShooting
Effective FG%: WAG 49.6 and allows 50.4; LIU 52.8 and allows 50.0
LIUSmallWAG offense vs LIU defense
Offense 359th of 366 against a defense 283rd, on the model’s ratings
WAGSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WAG 32.8%, LIU 33.9%. Defensive: WAG 70.5%, LIU 67.0%
Context
Schedule so far
WAG has played the 349th-hardest schedule, LIU the 291st. A record against a soft schedule means less
LIUSmallHome court
LIU at home. This season: LIU 5-1 at home, WAG 2-9 away
LIUSmallThree-pointers
WAG hits 36.6% and allows 34.3%; LIU hits 35.8% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 36.1% and 29.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: WAG plays 66.4 a game (299th fastest), LIU 68.5 (206th). Faster games mean more points
WAGSmallLIU offense vs WAG defense
Offense 338th of 366 against a defense 293rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: WAG 1-4 ATS, margin -3.6; LIU 0-5 ATS, margin +2.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WAG 0%, LIU 6%. Transfers in: WAG 8, LIU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rest
WAG 3 days since its last game, LIU 3
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 10 to 14.5 | 1928 | 88% | 48% | 52% |
| Conference games at this spread | 1541 | 89% | 47% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 140 to 144.5 | 3570 | 72% | 50% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenLIU -10.5
no move
NowLIU -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▲ 1
Now144.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIU -10.5 · unchangedmodel LIU -9.5
model LIU -9.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 1 upmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LIU -10.5 | LIU -9.6 | WAG +0.9 |
| Total | 144.5 | 145.6 | Over 1.1 |
| Projected score | — | WAG 68 · LIU 77.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LIU -5.6 | — |
| 1H total | 68.2 | — |
| 1H projected score | WAG 31.3 · LIU 36.9 | — |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAG | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| LIU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
WAG 6–3 LIUWAG leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · LIU has won the last 2 meetings · WAG 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | WAG 47 @ LIU 60 | LIU -5.5 | LIU W |
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | LIU 60 @ WAG 47 | WAG +0.5 | LIU W |
| Feb 25, 2023-24 | LIU 57 @ WAG 72 | WAG -7.5 | WAG W |
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | WAG 67 @ LIU 69 | LIU +4.5 | LIU W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | LIU 46 @ WAG 58 | WAG -14.5 | LIU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wagner
15 games played
Straight up
3-12
20% wins
Against the spread
8-7
53% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ VCU | L 74-103 | +25.5 | L −3.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 7 | @ HALL | L 61-68 | +21.5 | W +14.5 | 134.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 11 | @ FOR | L 61-63 | +12.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 16 | @ UMBC | L 70-71 | +6.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 22 | @ GTWN | L 75-92 | +25.5 | W +8.5 | 140.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 26 | @ MAN | W 103-101 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | O 204 |
| Dec 2 | @ MD | L 63-89 | +22.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 17 | vs UMES | W 78-64 | -4.5 | W +9.5 | 131.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 2 | @ CHST | W 79-72 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 4 | vs STO | L 60-69 | -7.5 | L −16.5 | 139.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 8 | vs SFPA | L 69-71 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 10 | vs MERC | L 69-70 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 132.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 17 | @ NHVN | L 74-80 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 129.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 19 | @ FDU | L 61-68 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 23 | @ LEM | L 67-69 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@VCU
VCUL 74-103
−3.5
7
@HALL
HALLL 61-68
+14.5
11
@FOR
FORL 61-63
+10.5
16
@UMBC
UMBCL 70-71
+5.5
22
@GTWN
GTWNL 75-92
+8.5
26
@MAN
MANW 103-101
+4.5
2
@MD
MDL 63-89
−3.5
17
vsUMES
UMESW 78-64
+9.5
2
@CHST
CHSTW 79-72
+5.5
4
vsSTO
STOL 60-69
−16.5
8
vsSFPA
SFPAL 69-71
−9.5
10
vsMERC
MERCL 69-70
−2.5
17
@NHVN
NHVNL 74-80
−4.5
19
@FDU
FDUL 61-68
−4.5
23
@LEM
LEML 67-69
+5.5
covered 8didn’t cover 7avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@VCU
VCUL 74-103
+43.5
7
@HALL
HALLL 61-68
−5.5
11
@FOR
FORL 61-63
−15.5
16
@UMBC
UMBCL 70-71
+0.5
22
@GTWN
GTWNL 75-92
+26.5
26
@MAN
MANW 103-101
+59.5
2
@MD
MDL 63-89
+8.5
17
vsUMES
UMESW 78-64
+10.5
2
@CHST
CHSTW 79-72
+4.5
4
vsSTO
STOL 60-69
−10.5
8
vsSFPA
SFPAL 69-71
−4.5
10
vsMERC
MERCL 69-70
+6.5
17
@NHVN
NHVNL 74-80
+24.5
19
@FDU
FDUL 61-68
−8.5
23
@LEM
LEML 67-69
−7.5
over 9under 6avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Long Island
20 games played
Straight up
12-8
60% wins
Against the spread
9-11
45% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-11
45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ ND | L 67-89 | +15.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 6 | @ IUIN | W 94-90 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 185.5 | U 184 |
| Nov 11 | @ AF | W 76-72 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs JMU | W 88-79 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | @FOR | L 53-69 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 22 | @ ILL | L 58-98 | +34.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | @ MOST | W 75-61 | +4.5 | W +18.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 2 | vs WIN | L 92-94 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 6 | @ LEH | W 87-82 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs LAS | W 70-60 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSST | L 83-87 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | @ FIU | L 79-86 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 29 | @ UGA | L 74-89 | +30.5 | W +15.5 | 179.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 2 | vs CCSU | W 84-78 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 4 | @CHST | W 74-55 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 8 | vsMERC | W 60-58 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 10 | vsSFPA | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 17 | @FDU | W 66-59 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 19 | @LEM | L 77-83 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 23 | @STO | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@ND
NDL 67-89
−6.5
6
@IUIN
IUINW 94-90
+8.5
11
@AF
AFW 76-72
−1.5
15
vsJMU
JMUW 88-79
+5.5
20
@FOR
FORL 53-69
−11.5
22
@ILL
ILLL 58-98
−5.5
24
@MOST
MOSTW 75-61
+18.5
2
vsWIN
WINL 92-94
+3.5
6
@LEH
LEHW 87-82
+3.5
13
vsLAS
LASW 70-60
+7.5
16
@MSST
MSSTL 83-87
+12.5
20
@FIU
FIUL 79-86
−0.5
29
@UGA
UGAL 74-89
+15.5
2
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-78
−0.5
4
@CHST
CHSTW 74-55
+11.5
8
vsMERC
MERCW 60-58
−6.5
10
vsSFPA
SFPAW 67-63
−11.5
17
@FDU
FDUW 66-59
−0.5
19
@LEM
LEML 77-83
−7.5
23
@STO
STOW 66-63
−2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 11avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ND
NDL 67-89
+20.5
6
@IUIN
IUINW 94-90
−1.5
11
@AF
AFW 76-72
+10.5
15
vsJMU
JMUW 88-79
+19.5
20
@FOR
FORL 53-69
−23.5
22
@ILL
ILLL 58-98
−4.5
24
@MOST
MOSTW 75-61
−9.5
2
vsWIN
WINL 92-94
+32.5
6
@LEH
LEHW 87-82
+26.5
13
vsLAS
LASW 70-60
−13.5
16
@MSST
MSSTL 83-87
+17.5
20
@FIU
FIUL 79-86
+3.5
29
@UGA
UGAL 74-89
−16.5
2
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-78
+15.5
4
@CHST
CHSTW 74-55
−22.5
8
vsMERC
MERCW 60-58
−21.5
10
vsSFPA
SFPAW 67-63
−18.5
17
@FDU
FDUW 66-59
−18.5
19
@LEM
LEML 77-83
+9.5
23
@STO
STOW 66-63
−8.5
over 9under 11avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Wagner 0, Long Island 0, even 5
WagnerBetterLong Island
G T. Bryant TR3.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 8
=Even
G J. Pickett TR5.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 2
G C. Estevez TR3.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 14
=Even
G K. Jones TR4.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 13
G R. Pettis TR1.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G D. Davis TR0.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 1 ast
Not ranked
F K. Watson TR4.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast
Score 31
=No call
G D. Jean-Charles TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast
Not ranked
C B. Smith TR1.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.2 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F J. Johnson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 33
WagnerBetterLong Island
WAG offense359th of 366 · -14.0
→LIUSmall
LIU defense283rd of 366 · -7.1
WAG defense293rd of 366 · -7.4
=Even
LIU offense338th of 366 · -11.1
Backcourt-3.1 · 3 players
←WAGBig
Backcourt-6.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
=Even
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
Bench-1.9 · 3 players
=Even
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWAG betterLIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
WagnerGuards
T. Bryant14 min · TRC. Estevez12 min · TRR. Pettis10 min · TRL. McGradyNewJ. CurtisNewG. EdwardsNew
Forwards
K. Watson12 min · TRT. Jones5 min · TRA. RodriguezNewD. KabaNewF. HassanNew
Centers
B. Smith8 min · TRY. Singar8 min · TRW. Patterson4 min · TR
Long IslandGuards
J. Pickett27 min · TRK. Jones11 min · TRD. Davis9 min · TRD. Jean-Charles9 min · TRM. Ndlovu-Fraser8 minV. AlletteNew
Forwards
J. Johnson15 min · TRJ. Howard7 min · TRX. Li4 minM. BewleyNewR. BewleyNewT. BowlesNew
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
WAG69.6 #292LIU73.6 #214Points per possession
WAG1.05 #250LIU1.08 #185Pace (possessions)
WAG66.4 #299LIU68.5 #206Shooting
Effective FG%
WAG49.6 #262LIU52.8 #1123-point %
WAG36.6 #36LIU35.8 #673-point attempt rate
WAG36.1 #249LIU29.3 #354Free throw rate
WAG32.4 #252LIU34.0 #207Possessions
Turnover rate
WAG18.6 #303LIU19.0 #320Offensive rebound rate
WAG32.8 #96LIU33.9 #70Assists per game
WAG11.9 #289LIU13.7 #170Defense
Points allowed
WAG72.7 #126LIU71.7 #99Points allowed per possession
WAG1.09 #208LIU1.04 #80Opponent effective FG%
WAG50.4 #123LIU50.0 #102Opponent 3-point %
WAG34.3 #202LIU32.2 #72Turnovers forced
WAG14.9 #295LIU18.7 #61Defensive rebound rate
WAG70.5 #139LIU67.0 #299Steals per game
WAG5.2 #321LIU7.8 #56Blocks per game
WAG2.3 #320LIU5.4 #9| WAG | LIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 69.6 #292 | Points per game | 73.6 #214 |
| 1.05 #250 | Points per possession | 1.08 #185 |
| 66.4 #299 | Pace (possessions) | 68.5 #206 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.6 #262 | Effective FG% | 52.8 #112 |
| 36.6 #36 | 3-point % | 35.8 #67 |
| 36.1 #249 | 3-point attempt rate | 29.3 #354 |
| 32.4 #252 | Free throw rate | 34.0 #207 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.6 #303 | Turnover rate | 19.0 #320 |
| 32.8 #96 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.9 #70 |
| 11.9 #289 | Assists per game | 13.7 #170 |
| Defense | ||
| 72.7 #126 | Points allowed | 71.7 #99 |
| 1.09 #208 | Points allowed per possession | 1.04 #80 |
| 50.4 #123 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.0 #102 |
| 34.3 #202 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.2 #72 |
| 14.9 #295 | Turnovers forced | 18.7 #61 |
| 70.5 #139 | Defensive rebound rate | 67.0 #299 |
| 5.2 #321 | Steals per game | 7.8 #56 |
| 2.3 #320 | Blocks per game | 5.4 #9 |
Wagner
3-12 overall · 1-6 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Le Moyne67–69
- L@ FDU61–68
- L@ New Haven74–80
- Lvs Mercyhurst69–70
- Lvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–71
3 days since their last game.
Long Island
12-8 overall · 6-1 in conference · Northeast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Stonehill66–63
- L@ Le Moyne77–83
- W@ FDU66–59
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves67–63
- Wvs Mercyhurst60–58
3 days since their last game.