Madison Square Garden · Neutral site
Closing line
CONN -4.5✓ CONN covered by 8.5
CONN -4.5✓ CONN covered by 8.5Closing total150.5Under by 15.5
 ILL | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 1-5 |
| 2-5 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 79–79 CONN · ✓ CONN (51%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 32 | 29 | 61 |
| CONN | 43 | 31 | 74 |
1st half: ILL 32, CONN 43 (CONN by 11). The model had CONN by 0.1 and a total of 73.8 (actual 75).
Team stats
| ILL | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-60 32% | Field goals | 26-63 41% |
| 6-29 21% | 3-pointers | 10-28 36% |
| 17-18 94% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 43 14 off |
| 10 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 7 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell G | 39 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 8-16 | 2-8 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 25 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-7 | 1-2 |
| David Mirkovic F | 18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-4 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-5 |
| Brandon Lee G | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jake Davis F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers, Blake Fagbemi
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 35 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Solo Ball G | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 6-14 | 2-9 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 24 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Smith G | 24 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3-6 | 3-3 |
| Eric Reibe C | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Ross F | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Dwayne Koroma F | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Ross, Alec Millender, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Rrezon Elezaj
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -2.5
7 → CONN
CloseCONN -4.5
7 pts toward CONN
Total
Open154.5
▼ 4
Close150.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -2.5 · closed CONN -4.5 · moved 7 toward CONNmodel CONN -0.5
model CONN -0.5
Opened 154.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 4 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -4.5 | CONN -0.4 | ILL +4.1 | L CONN covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 157.5 | Over 7.0 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | ILL 78.6 · CONN 79 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -0.1 | CONN -11.0 |
| 1H total | 73.8 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | ILL 36.8 · CONN 36.9 | ILL 32 · CONN 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILLlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
| CONNlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ILL 0–1 CONNCONN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ILL 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023-24 | ILL 52 vs CONN 77 | CONN -8.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
over 2under 5avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
NHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vs
UML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vs
COLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vs
BYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vs
ARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vs
BRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
over 2under 4avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UT Rio Grande87–73
- Wvs Long Island98–58
- Lvs Alabama86–90
- Wvs Colgate84–65
- Wvs Texas Tech81–77
4 days since their last game.
UConn
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bryant72–49
- Lvs Arizona67–71
- Wvs BYU86–84
- Wvs Columbia89–62
- Wvs UMass Lowell110–47
5 days since their last game.