William R. Johnson Coliseum · at SF Austin · Conference game
Closing line
SFA -6.5✓ SFA covered by 6.5
SFA -6.5✓ SFA covered by 6.5Closing total143.5Under by 10.5
 RGV | This season | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: RGV 72–77 SFA · ✓ SFA (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGV | 26 | 34 | 60 |
| SFA | 29 | 44 | 73 |
1st half: RGV 26, SFA 29 (SFA by 3). The model had SFA by 3.1 and a total of 69.5 (actual 55).
Team stats
| RGV | SFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-62 35% | Field goals | 24-62 39% |
| 4-16 25% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 17-24 71% |
| 40 10 off | Rebounds | 44 11 off |
| 9 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| RGV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koree Cotton G | 30 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 3-12 | 0-1 |
| Zae Blake G | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Marvin McGhee III G | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-11 | 1-3 |
| Jaylen Washington Jr. G | 25 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 7-9 | 1-2 |
| Filip Brankovic F | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Julien Gomez G | 20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Always Wright G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Dane Christensen F | 15 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Kwo Agwa F | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-1 |
| Demarris Winters G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Ricks, Luis Ramirez, Marshal Destremau, Mustafo Vanjov, Kye Dickson
| SFA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lateef Patrick Jr. G | 36 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-17 | 0-7 |
| Chrishawn Christmas G | 31 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Keon Thompson G | 27 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Jerald Colonel F | 27 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Kam Burton G | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Narit Chotikavanic G | 22 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 3-5 |
| Ahamed Mohammed G | 19 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Gediminas Alisas F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Scurry G | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Eltramon Smith, Yohan Gutierrez, Harris Dar, Bryceson Melvin, Christian Green, Tichyque Musaka
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSFA -6.5
ModelSFA -5.4
Model edgeRGV +1.1
L SFA covered
Total
Market143.5
Model148.3
Model edgeOver 4.8
L Under
Projected score
RGV 71.5 · SFA 76.9
RGV 60 · SFA 73
Win probability
SFA 68%
1st half
Spread
SFA -3.1
SFA -3.0
Total
69.5
55 points
Projected score
RGV 33.2 · SFA 36.3
RGV 26 · SFA 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSFA -6.5
no move
CloseSFA -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▼ 6
Close143.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
RGV +230 · SFA -285
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SFA -6.5 · unchangedmodel SFA -5.5
model SFA -5.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 6 downmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGVlast 5 | 1-4 20% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| SFAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
RGV 1–7 SFASFA leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · RGV 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024-25 | RGV 75 @ SFA 85 | SFA -1.5 | SFA W |
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | SFA 65 @ RGV 68 | RGV -5.5 | SFA W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | RGV 84 @ SFA 92 | SFA -15.5 | RGV W |
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | SFA 85 @ RGV 78 | RGV +9.5 | RGV W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | SFA 82 @ RGV 72 | RGV +6.5 | SFA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UT Rio Grande
5 games played
Straight up
1-4
20% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +8.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BAY
BAYL 81-96
+9.5
8
@
SUU
SUUW 95-72
+21.5
11
@
BOIS
BOISL 65-85
−3.5
22
@
MOST
MOSTL 67-74
−3.5
24
@
ILL
ILLL 73-87
+19.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BAY
BAYL 81-96
+22.5
8
@SUU
SUUW 95-72
+6.5
11
@BOIS
BOISL 65-85
−11.5
22
@MOST
MOSTL 67-74
−8.5
24
@ILL
ILLL 73-87
−4.5
over 2under 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
SF Austin
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
ARST
ARSTW 90-65
+26.5
11
@
RICE
RICEW 81-69
+14.5
14
vs
ACU
ACUW 76-66
+3.5
18
@
FRES
FRESL 78-80
−4.5
21
@
PEPP
PEPPW 63-60
+1.5
29
@
UTA
UTAL 61-66
−3.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsARST
ARSTW 90-65
−0.5
11
@RICE
RICEW 81-69
+0.5
14
vsACU
ACUW 76-66
−0.5
18
@FRES
FRESL 78-80
+11.5
21
@PEPP
PEPPW 63-60
−25.5
29
@UTA
UTAL 61-66
−11.5
over 2under 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UT Rio Grande
1-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Illinois73–87
- L@ Missouri St67–74
- L@ Boise St65–85
- W@ Southern Utah95–72
- L@ Baylor81–96
A week or more of rest.
SF Austin
4-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UT Arlington61–66
- W@ Pepperdine63–60
- L@ Fresno St78–80
- Wvs Abilene Chrstn76–66
- W@ Rice81–69
4 days since their last game.