Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs McNeese Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 5:00 PM ETJohn Gray Gymnasium · Neutral site

#154MTSUMTSU62final

Final

#127MCNMcNeese72▲ winner

Closing lineMCN -9.5✓ MCN covered by 0.5

Closing total147.5Under by 13.5

Season records: MTSU and McNeese
MTSU	This season	MCN
2-2	Record	3-1
3-1	ATS	3-1
3-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MTSU 74–80 MCN · ✓ MCN (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MTSU	34	28	62
MCN	28	44	72

1st half: MTSU 34, MCN 28 (MTSU by 6). The model had MCN by 3.5 and a total of 71.7 (actual 62).

Team stats

MTSU		MCN
22-52 42%	Field goals	22-58 38%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	5-19 26%
8-14 57%	Free throws	23-25 92%
31 14 off	Rebounds	38 18 off
14	Assists	7
3	Steals	4
4	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	6
21	Fouls	16
12	Points in paint	30
3	Fast-break points	4

Players

MTSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sean Smith G	34	11	3	4	4-10	0-2
Jahvin Carter G	33	13	3	3	5-11	2-6
Kamari Lands G	27	18	3	1	6-12	5-8
Torey Alston F	26	6	9	2	2-7	0-0
Chris Loofe F	17	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Alec Oglesby G	25	12	0	2	4-9	3-5
Luka Jovanovic C	24	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
James Dent Jr. G	14	0	2	2	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Marcus Whitlock Jr., Jarred Hall, Tre Green, Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle

MCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javohn Garcia G	31	26	1	0	8-11	2-3
Tyshawn Archie G	28	15	3	2	5-15	2-8
Jerrell Colbert F	21	3	1	0	1-2	0-0
DJ Richards Jr. G	16	7	3	0	1-3	1-3
Jacolb Fredson-Cole F	11	0	2	0	0-5	0-1
Bench
Carl Cherenfant G	29	7	10	2	1-2	0-1
Garwey Dual G	28	6	5	2	3-12	0-2
Larry Johnson G	18	6	4	0	2-7	0-1
Peitok Machar F	18	2	4	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: JJ Rembert, Yanis Ndjonga, Erik Villarreal, Kaleb Brewer, T'Johnn Brown, Akim Mazou

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MCN -9.5	MCN -6.1	MTSU +3.4	L MCN covered
Total	147.5	153.0	Over 5.5	L Under
Projected score	—	MTSU 73.5 · MCN 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MCN -3.5	MTSU -6.0
1H total	71.7	62
1H projected score	MTSU 34.1 · MCN 37.6	MTSU 34 · MCN 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MTSU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1
MCN LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: MTSU neutral site, as underdog; MCN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
MCN UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
MCNlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MTSU

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 23	vsMUR	W 90-87	+6.5	W +9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsGW	L 79-92	+9.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

MUR

W 90-87

+9.5

L 79-92

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

MUR

W 90-87

+15.5

L 79-92

+12.5

over 3under 1avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

McNeese

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

over 2under 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

MTSU vs McNeese

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

MTSU

McNeese

MTSU

McNeese