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| Status | Matchup | Spread | Total | Model line | Spread edge | Model total | Total edge | Win prob | Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Half final |  4-1 · #5  2-3 · #19 |
— | — | BOS -3.4 | — | 112.4 | — | 62% BOS | › | |
| Half final |  0-5 · #27  2-4 · #25 |
— | — | IND -3.7 | — | 115.1 | — | 63% IND | › | |
| Half final |  1-4 · #20  3-3 · #13 |
— | — | GS -0.8 | — | 113.8 | — | 53% GS | › | |
| Half final |  3-2 · #7  4-2 · #10 |
— | — | LAL -0.7 | — | 113.9 | — | 53% LAL | › |
1st-half market lines come from the sportsbooks that post them (they appear within a day of tip-off); the model’s 1st half is fitted from its full-game numbers and past halves. The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record