When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
282 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 147 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
Went over by halftime: 5 games
2025 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
HOU -9.5 | 37.5 | 16405368 | Q2 | IND Q1 | 30–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
GB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14415165 | Q2 | BAL Q1 | 41–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
JAX -13.5 | 40.5 | 21415468 | Q2 | JAX Q2 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SEA -7.5 | 44.5 | 21455366 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SEA -6.5 | 41.5 | 21445057 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 13–44 |
IND
HOU
BAL
GB
NYJ
JAX
ARI
SEA
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 51% 144
Q2 16% 46
Q3 13% 38
Q4 17% 49
OT 2% 5
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 72% of 258 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 270 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 39 | 100% 39 |
| 1–3 | 14 | 100% 14 |
| 4–7 | 33 | 76% 25 |
| 8–10 | 31 | 81% 25 |
| 11–14 | 29 | 66% 19 |
| 15–17 | 25 | 48% 12 |
| 18–21 | 44 | 18% 8 |
| 22+ | 67 | 7% 5 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.