1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Iowa ✕

When did they go over?

6 games · 2026 · Iowa · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games6100%By halftime00%In Q3233%In Q400%In OT00%Stayed under467%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands117%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game117%
33% went over. Of the 2 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 100% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 6 games

2026 · Iowa · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 5
 OSU -14.5 46.5 16233045 U OSU Q3 31–14
2026 · Week 4
 MICH -4.5 39.5 14172039 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–19
UNI @ IOWA
2026 · Week 3
 IOWA -37.5 48.5 21424955 Q3 IOWA Q2 0–55
2026 · Week 2
 IOWA -14 42.5 0202329 U ISU Q1 13–16
2026 · Week 1
 IOWA -31.5 44.5 20334040 U IOWA Q2 0–40
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 2
Q2 33% 2
Q3 17% 1
Q4 17% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 80% of 5 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 67% and covered 83% of 6 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
4–710% 0
15–1710% 0
18–2120% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.