Rhode Island Rams vs Vermont Catamounts: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 2:30 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#105URIRhode Island80▲ winner

Final

#186UVMVermont65final

Closing lineURI -4.5✓ URI covered by 10.5

Closing total144.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Rhode Island and Vermont
URI	This season	UVM
4-2	Record	2-2
4-2	ATS	2-2
2-4	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: URI 79–73 UVM · ✓ URI (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
URI	35	45	80
UVM	30	35	65

1st half: URI 35, UVM 30 (URI by 5). The model had URI by 3.3 and a total of 71.1 (actual 65).

Team stats

URI		UVM
24-50 48%	Field goals	20-48 42%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
26-38 68%	Free throws	16-23 70%
39 15 off	Rebounds	25 9 off
8	Assists	14
12	Steals	5
3	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	14
21	Fouls	28
34	Points in paint	18
18	Fast-break points	9

Players

URI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jonah Hinton G	34	18	1	3	6-17	3-13
Myles Corey G	33	22	6	1	6-6	1-1
Keeyan Itejere F	30	10	5	1	5-6	0-0
Tyler Cochran G	30	13	7	1	3-8	1-3
Alex Crawford F	20	3	6	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Jahmere Tripp G	23	11	7	1	3-7	1-2
Damone King G	12	2	3	0	0-2	0-2
Drissa Traore F	6	1	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jalen Harper G	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
RJ Johnson G	6	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Moek Icke, Jaymien Aponte, Jimmy Ball, Barrett Loer, Mouhamed Sow, Javon Perry

UVM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Long G	30	13	3	1	4-11	2-5
TJ Hurley G	24	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
Lucas Mari G	20	8	2	2	2-6	2-6
Noah Barnett F	19	7	5	1	1-1	0-0
Gus Yalden F	16	8	2	2	2-4	1-3
Bench
Ben Johnson G	23	11	1	3	4-7	3-5
Momo Nkugwa G	22	2	5	1	1-3	0-2
Sean Blake G	22	4	1	3	2-6	0-2
Jackson Skipper F	13	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Benjamin Michaels F	11	9	4	1	3-4	0-1

Did not play: David Simon, Ben Wesson, Drew Bessette, Sincere Clemons, Chris Kuzemka, Trey Woodyard

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	URI -4.5	URI -5.2	URI +0.7	W URI covered
Total	144.5	151.8	Over 7.3	W Over
Projected score	—	URI 78.5 · UVM 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	URI -3.3	URI -5.0
1H total	71.1	65
1H projected score	URI 37.2 · UVM 33.9	URI 35 · UVM 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
URI LWWWL	4-2	67%	0-2	3-2
UVM LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: URI neutral site, as favorite; UVM neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
URI UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
UVM OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
URIlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
UVMlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rhode Island

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTET	W 93-62	-18.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 7	vsTLSA	L 65-82	-3.5	L −20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsSTO	W 80-57	-16.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	vsUALB	W 80-61	-15.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 18	@YALE	W 86-77	+8.5	W +17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsTOW	L 55-62	-2.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+12.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−20.5

STO

W 80-57

+6.5

UALB

W 80-61

+3.5

YALE

W 86-77

+17.5

TOW

L 55-62

−9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STET

W 93-62

+2.5

TLSA

L 65-82

−6.5

STO

W 80-57

−14.5

UALB

W 80-61

−9.5

YALE

W 86-77

+9.5

TOW

L 55-62

−23.5

over 2under 4avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vermont

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +29.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

over 4under 0avg +29.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rhode Island vs Vermont

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Rhode Island

Vermont

Rhode Island

Vermont