Ocean Center · Neutral site
Closing line
HPU -12.5✓ UIW covered by 1.5
HPU -12.5✓ UIW covered by 1.5Closing total160.5Over by 10.5
 UIW | This season | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UIW 74–85 HPU · ✓ HPU (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW | 40 | 40 | 80 |
| HPU | 46 | 45 | 91 |
1st half: UIW 40, HPU 46 (HPU by 6). The model had HPU by 6.7 and a total of 74.3 (actual 86).
Team stats
| UIW | HPU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-61 43% | Field goals | 30-56 54% |
| 11-29 38% | 3-pointers | 5-18 28% |
| 17-22 77% | Free throws | 26-31 84% |
| 27 14 off | Rebounds | 38 15 off |
| 11 | Assists | 14 |
| 4 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| UIW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj Staveskie G | 36 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| Davion Bailey G | 36 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 10-22 | 7-16 |
| Harold Woods G | 31 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Pyke G | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Marcus Glover F | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lewis Rowe C | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Esteban Mann F | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Love Bettis G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Harrison Reede G | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Williams C | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Kortas, Tyler Simon, Mihael Tomic, Drew Barbee, Amani Drummond
| HPU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam'Ron Fletcher F | 35 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6-11 | 2-4 |
| Owen Aquino F | 28 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Terry Anderson F | 23 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 10-12 | 1-2 |
| Rob Martin G | 22 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Chase Johnston G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Conrad Martinez G | 26 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Scotty Washington G | 19 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Braden Hausen F | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Caden Miller F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Youssouf Singar C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Josh Ibukunoluwa F | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Babacar Diallo, Dorian Grosber, Kasen Krueger, Mavrick Miller, Birgir Irving, David Fonville, Liam Carney, Vincent Brady II
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHPU -12.5
ModelHPU -11.3
Model edgeUIW +1.2
W UIW covered
Total
Market160.5
Model158.5
Model edgeUnder 2.0
L Over
Projected score
UIW 73.6 · HPU 84.9
UIW 80 · HPU 91
Win probability
HPU 84%
1st half
Spread
HPU -6.7
HPU -6.0
Total
74.3
86 points
Projected score
UIW 33.8 · HPU 40.5
UIW 40 · HPU 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHPU -12.5
no move
CloseHPU -12.5
No change since the open
Total
Open161.5
▼ 1
Close160.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
UIW +600 · HPU -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HPU -12.5 · unchangedmodel HPU -11.5
model HPU -11.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 1 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIWlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% |
| HPUlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Incarnate Word
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
CSU
CSUL 64-98
−23.5
16
@
IU
IUL 61-69
+20.5
20
vs
USI
USIW 87-81
−3.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
+14.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
−27.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
+22.5
over 2under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
High Point
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FUR
FURW 97-71
+22.5
11
vs
JAX
JAXW 85-64
+3.5
14
@
UAB
UABL 74-91
−18.5
17
vs
CAN
CANW 93-50
+19.5
20
vs
UIC
UICW 90-80
−0.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFUR
FURW 97-71
+14.5
11
vsJAX
JAXW 85-64
−7.5
14
@UAB
UABL 74-91
−3.5
17
vsCAN
CANW 93-50
−9.5
20
vsUIC
UICW 90-80
+11.5
over 2under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Incarnate Word
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles87–81
- L@ Indiana61–69
- L@ Colorado St64–98
2 days since their last game.
High Point
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big South Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UIC90–80
- Wvs Canisius93–50
- L@ UAB74–91
- Wvs Jacksonville85–64
- Wvs Furman97–71
2 days since their last game.