Imperial Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
USF -7.5✓ WKU covered by 1.5
USF -7.5✓ WKU covered by 1.5Closing total167.5Over by 20.5
| USF | This season | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USF 88–81 WKU · ✓ USF (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 40 | 44 | 13 | 97 |
| WKU | 50 | 34 | 7 | 91 |
1st half: USF 40, WKU 50 (WKU by 10). The model had USF by 4.3 and a total of 78.7 (actual 90).
Team stats
| USF | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-81 40% | Field goals | 31-69 45% |
| 13-36 36% | 3-pointers | 10-26 38% |
| 20-26 77% | Free throws | 19-28 68% |
| 50 17 off | Rebounds | 45 10 off |
| 24 | Assists | 14 |
| 10 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 9 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 24 | Fouls | 21 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Brown G | 38 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 5-18 | 1-5 |
| Joseph Pinion G | 30 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 5-15 | 4-11 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 29 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 28 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Daimion Collins F | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Wes Enis G | 34 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Isaiah Jones F | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Devin Haid G | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Adriel Nyorha G | 11 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Tristan Beckford G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Onyx Nnani, De'Ante Green, Caleb Sanders, Xavier Brown
| WKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teagan Moore G | 40 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 9-18 | 1-6 |
| Cam Haffner G | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Terrion Murdix G | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
| Grant Newell F | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Blaise Keita F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bryant Selebangue F | 28 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| LJ Hackman G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Armelo Boone G | 27 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-3 |
| Ryan Myers G | 23 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5-7 | 4-5 |
| Noah Boyde C | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jack Edelen G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Leeroy Odiahi F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Louie Semona III, Kade Unseld, Cade Stinnett, Lawson Rice
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSF -7.5
ModelUSF -6.8
Model edgeWKU +0.7
W WKU covered
Total
Market167.5
Model168.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
W Over
Projected score
USF 87.5 · WKU 80.7
USF 97 · WKU 91
Win probability
USF 72%
1st half
Spread
USF -4.3
WKU -10.0
Total
78.7
90 points
Projected score
USF 41.5 · WKU 37.2
USF 40 · WKU 50
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWKU -6.5
14 → USF
CloseUSF -7.5
14 pts toward USF
Total
Open168.5
▼ 1
Close167.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USF -340 · WKU +270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WKU -6.5 · closed USF -7.5 · moved 14 toward USFmodel USF -7
model USF -7
Opened 168.5 · closed 167.5 · moved 1 downmodel 168
model 168
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USFlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 4-2 67% |
| WKUlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Florida
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vs
GW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vs
COPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@
KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@
OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vs
VCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
over 4under 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Western KY
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
TNTC
TNTCW 82-70
−2.5
10
@
EKU
EKUW 87-79
+6.5
16
vs
TNST
TNSTW 95-82
+0.5
26
vs
VAN
VANL 78-83
+13.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTNTC
TNTCW 82-70
−1.5
10
@EKU
EKUW 87-79
+3.5
16
vsTNST
TNSTW 95-82
+9.5
26
vsVAN
VANL 78-83
−7.5
over 2under 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Florida
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs VCU66–78
- L@ Oklahoma St95–103
- W@ Kennesaw St108–89
- Wvs Coppin St100–50
- Lvs G Washington95–99
1 day since their last game.
Western KY
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Vanderbilt78–83
- Wvs Tennessee St95–82
- W@ E Kentucky87–79
- Wvs Tennessee Tech82–70
1 day since their last game.