Gersten Pavilion · at LMU · Conference game
Closing line
SMC -9.5✓ LMU covered by 4.5
SMC -9.5✓ LMU covered by 4.5Closing total143.5Over by 7.5
| SMC | This season | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | Record | 8-4 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 7-5 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SMC 72–64 LMU · ✓ SMC (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMC | 33 | 45 | 78 |
| LMU | 33 | 40 | 73 |
1st half: SMC 33, LMU 33 (tied). The model had SMC by 5.0 and a total of 63.5 (actual 66).
Team stats
| SMC | LMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-56 52% | Field goals | 28-56 50% |
| 7-14 50% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 31 12 off | Rebounds | 27 9 off |
| 12 | Assists | 11 |
| 2 | Steals | 1 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent G | 33 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 31 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-11 | 0-2 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 31 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 30 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 6-10 | 4-7 |
| Harry Wessels C | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rory Hawke G | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Andrew McKeever C | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Liam Campbell G | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trent MacLean, Mantas Juzenas, Tony Duckett, Oliver Faubert, Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner
| LMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Brown Jr. G | 36 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 9-14 | 4-8 |
| Myron Amey Jr. G | 29 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Rokas Jocius F | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jan Vide G | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Shelley F | 28 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aaron McBride F | 18 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| AJ Thomas G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Rick Issanza C | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Josh Dalton F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nakyel Shelton G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cooper Smith, Jael Martin, Marley Zeller, George Tupy, Kevin Carney, Tanner Thomas
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSMC -9.5
ModelSMC -8.2
Model edgeLMU +1.3
W LMU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model135.4
Model edgeUnder 8.1
L Over
Projected score
SMC 71.8 · LMU 63.6
SMC 78 · LMU 73
Win probability
SMC 76%
1st half
Spread
SMC -5.0
tied
Total
63.5
66 points
Projected score
SMC 34.3 · LMU 29.2
SMC 33 · LMU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMC -8.5
1 → SMC
CloseSMC -9.5
1 pt toward SMC
Total
Open137.5
▲ 6
Close143.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
SMC -485 · LMU +370
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMC -8.5 · closed SMC -9.5 · moved 1 toward SMCmodel SMC -8
model SMC -8
Opened 137.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 6 upmodel 135.5
model 135.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMC | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| LMU | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
SMC 7–1 LMUSMC leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SMC has won the last 4 meetings · SMC 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | SMC 58 @ LMU 55 | LMU +12.5 | LMU W |
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | LMU 56 @ SMC 81 | SMC -13.5 | SMC W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | LMU 65 @ SMC 70 | SMC -16.5 | LMU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | SMC 68 @ LMU 64 | LMU +7.5 | LMU W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | SMC 74 @ LMU 78 | LMU +5.5 | LMU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Saint Mary's
12 games played
Straight up
10-2
83% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs STMN | W 84-58 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTC | W 87-66 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 11 | vs OHIO | W 90-60 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs UNT | W 80-49 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 128.5 | O 129 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARST | W 85-72 | -20.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 26 | vs WICH | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 27 | vs VT | W 77-66 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VAN | L 71-96 | +4.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 7 | @ DAV | W 70-61 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 14 | vs BOIS | L 67-68 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAU | W 88-75 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs UNI | W 63-58 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 132.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+16.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
−7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
+5.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
−20.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
+0.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−3.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
−0.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−6.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+5.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+0.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
+7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
−1.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
+17.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
−6.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−4.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
+17.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−11.5
over 7under 5avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
LMU
12 games played
Straight up
8-4
67% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs EWU | W 70-62 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs UAPB | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ UTEP | W 71-58 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 14 | vs TROY | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 17 | @ UCSB | W 78-74 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 24 | vsFAU | L 65-76 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vsOHIO | W 70-58 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 28 | vs STBK | L 68-71 | -10.5 | L −13.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 2 | vs SLU | L 70-91 | +7.5 | L −13.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 16 | vs UCSD | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs UNA | W 91-57 | -10.5 | W +23.5 | 140.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 23 | vs MORG | W 83-56 | -23.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsEWU
EWUW 70-62
−1.5
8
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-72
+2.5
11
@UTEP
UTEPW 71-58
+14.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 74-63
+6.5
17
@UCSB
UCSBW 78-74
+7.5
24
vsFAU
FAUL 65-76
−7.5
25
vsOHIO
OHIOW 70-58
+8.5
28
vsSTBK
STBKL 68-71
−13.5
2
vsSLU
SLUL 70-91
−13.5
16
vsUCSD
UCSDL 57-67
−8.5
19
vsUNA
UNAW 91-57
+23.5
23
vsMORG
MORGW 83-56
+3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsEWU
EWUW 70-62
−21.5
8
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-72
+8.5
11
@UTEP
UTEPW 71-58
−15.5
14
vsTROY
TROYW 74-63
−3.5
17
@UCSB
UCSBW 78-74
+6.5
24
vsFAU
FAUL 65-76
−3.5
25
vsOHIO
OHIOW 70-58
−16.5
28
vsSTBK
STBKL 68-71
+0.5
2
vsSLU
SLUL 70-91
+10.5
16
vsUCSD
UCSDL 57-67
−26.5
19
vsUNA
UNAW 91-57
+7.5
23
vsMORG
MORGW 83-56
−5.5
over 5under 7avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Saint Mary's
10-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Northern Iowa63–58
- Wvs FAU88–75
- Lvs Boise St67–68
- W@ Davidson70–61
- Lvs Vanderbilt71–96
6 days since their last game.
LMU
8-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Morgan St83–56
- Wvs North Alabama91–57
- Lvs UC San Diego57–67
- Lvs Saint Louis70–91
- Lvs Stony Brook68–71
5 days since their last game.