Old Dominion Monarchs at William & Mary Tribe: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 2:00 PM ETKaplan Arena · at William & Mary

Final

Closing lineW&M -8.5✓ W&M covered by 4.5

Closing total163.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Old Dominion and William & Mary
ODU	This season	W&M
2-5	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	5-1
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ODU 75–84 W&M · ✓ W&M (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ODU	29	46	75
W&M	39	49	88

1st half: ODU 29, W&M 39 (W&M by 10). The model had W&M by 4.9 and a total of 74.4 (actual 68).

Team stats

ODU		W&M
27-65 42%	Field goals	29-58 50%
9-34 26%	3-pointers	5-22 23%
12-13 92%	Free throws	25-30 83%
27 5 off	Rebounds	39 8 off
12	Assists	20
6	Steals	7
4	Blocks	6
16	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	12
34	Points in paint	42
14	Fast-break points	15

Players

ODU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Robert Davis Jr. G	36	14	2	3	5-13	4-10
LJ Thomas G	34	14	3	3	6-13	0-1
Jordan Battle G	31	24	7	0	7-13	4-8
Scottie Hubbard G	21	2	4	2	1-5	0-4
Caelum Swanton-Rodger F	19	4	2	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
Zacch Wiggins G	23	9	2	2	4-10	1-5
Jared Turner F	22	2	1	1	1-5	0-4
Drew McKenna F	11	6	1	0	2-4	0-2
Donovan Raymond F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Rieco Hellams G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ben Nacey, CJ Parker, KC Shaw, Stephaun Walker, Cooper Jones, Elijah Flowers

W&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F	32	25	6	3	10-19	1-7
Cade Haskins F	28	6	4	0	2-6	2-6
Jo'el Emanuel F	28	16	3	2	5-7	0-1
Chase Lowe G	28	15	5	7	5-12	0-2
Kilian Brockhoff F	27	21	8	5	5-7	2-3
Bench
Ryan Jackson Jr. G	27	4	5	0	2-3	0-0
Jhei-R Jones G	21	0	6	3	0-2	0-1
Kyle Frazier G	7	1	0	0	0-2	0-2
Kaleb Spencer F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Lamine Ndaw, Kyle Pulliam, Finn Lally, Reese Miller, Ethan Connery, Miles Hicks

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	W&M -8.5	W&M -8.3	ODU +0.2	L W&M covered
Total	163.5	158.9	Under 4.6	W Under
Projected score	—	ODU 75.3 · W&M 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	W&M -4.9	W&M -10.0
1H total	74.4	68
1H projected score	ODU 34.8 · W&M 39.6	ODU 29 · W&M 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LLWLW	3-4	43%	2-3	2-3
W&M WLWWW	5-1	83%	—	2-0

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; W&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OOUOO	5-2	71%	2-5
W&M OUUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
W&Mlast 6	4-2 67%	5-1 83%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ODU 3–1 W&MODU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · ODU 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2024-25	W&M 83 @ ODU 88	ODU +7.5	ODU W
Dec 6, 2023-24	ODU 79 @ W&M 84	W&M +3.5	W&M W
Dec 7, 2022-23	W&M 62 @ ODU 72	ODU -9.5	ODU W
Dec 7, 2021-22	ODU 74 @ W&M 59	W&M +8	ODU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Old Dominion

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@M-OH	L 72-87	+16.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsNORF	W 60-57	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 15	@GW	L 73-96	+15.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 18	@XAV	L 69-99	+10.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsMORG	W 88-56	-11.5	W +20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 23	@DREX	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@VILL	L 75-89	+22.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+1.5

NORF

W 60-57

−5.5

L 73-96

−7.5

XAV

L 69-99

−19.5

MORG

W 88-56

+20.5

DREX

L 71-75

−0.5

VILL

L 75-89

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+5.5

NORF

W 60-57

−32.5

L 73-96

+13.5

XAV

L 69-99

+17.5

MORG

W 88-56

−12.5

DREX

L 71-75

+3.5

VILL

L 75-89

+16.5

over 5under 2avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

William & Mary

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −7.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

over 3under 3avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Old Dominion @ William & Mary

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Old Dominion

William & Mary

Old Dominion

William & Mary