Cornell Big Red at Towson Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETSECU Arena · at Towson

#179CORCornell80final

Final

#165TOWTowson93▲ winner

Closing lineTOW -6.5✓ TOW covered by 6.5

Closing total154.5Over by 18.5

Season records: Cornell and Towson
COR	This season	TOW
4-3	Record	4-3
2-5	ATS	4-3
5-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COR 76–81 TOW · ✓ TOW (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COR	36	44	80
TOW	35	58	93

1st half: COR 36, TOW 35 (COR by 1). The model had TOW by 3.1 and a total of 73.2 (actual 71).

Team stats

COR		TOW
30-56 54%	Field goals	37-66 56%
6-19 32%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
14-18 78%	Free throws	8-15 53%
25 7 off	Rebounds	38 16 off
14	Assists	18
4	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	11
12	Fouls	19
46	Points in paint	46
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

COR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Adam Hinton G	34	17	3	1	5-9	5-6
Cooper Noard G	31	14	3	2	6-15	0-7
Kaspar Sepp F	29	12	6	4	4-8	1-1
Jacob Beccles G	26	7	2	3	3-4	0-1
DJ Nix F	13	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Jake Fiegen G	26	19	2	0	7-13	0-2
Anthony Nimani G	14	7	2	0	3-3	0-0
Josh Baldwin G	13	2	1	3	1-2	0-1
Corbin Zentner G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Gioacchino Panzini F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
DaMaryon Fishburn G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ty Iwanonkiw, Elijah Griffin, Jax Abalos, Ryan Burbach, Blake Lecklitner, AJ Rodriguez, Mateen Rafiq, Ian Imegwu, AJ LaBeau

TOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Tejada F	38	26	8	3	9-18	6-10
Dylan Williamson G	36	15	2	8	7-15	0-4
Caleb Embeya F	23	6	7	0	2-2	0-0
Tyler Schmidt G	23	7	1	2	3-5	1-2
Tyler Coleman F	19	9	6	1	4-4	1-1
Bench
Jack Doumbia Jr. F	17	13	1	2	5-8	0-0
Mor Seck C	14	6	4	0	3-6	0-0
Jaquan Womack G	13	8	2	1	3-3	2-2
Chike Ndefo G	9	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Jaiden Cole G	8	3	1	1	1-3	1-3

Did not play: Brandon Holmes, Jon Barton, Ryan Conway, Ryan Skerry, Abdou Samb

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TOW -6.5	TOW -5.4	COR +1.1	L TOW covered
Total	154.5	156.3	Over 1.8	W Over
Projected score	—	COR 75.5 · TOW 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOW -3.1	COR -1.0
1H total	73.2	71
1H projected score	COR 35 · TOW 38.1	COR 36 · TOW 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COR WLLWL	2-5	29%	2-3	0-3
TOW LLWWL	4-3	57%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: COR away, as underdog; TOW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COR OUOOO	5-2	71%	4-3
TOW UOUOO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CORlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%
TOWlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cornell

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +14.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 13	@LAF	W 97-78	-4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 18	vsARMY	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 20	vsCOLG	W 95-94	-5.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 30	@BUCK	W 101-72	-5.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 2	@GMU	L 81-99	+10.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−4.5

COLG

W 95-94

−4.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+23.5

GMU

L 81-99

−7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−5.5

COLG

W 95-94

+27.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+13.5

GMU

L 81-99

+24.5

over 5under 2avg +14.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Towson

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −9.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 25	vsLIB	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsUCSD	L 73-87	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

LIB

W 72-69

+9.5

UCSD

L 73-87

−12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

LIB

W 72-69

+3.5

UCSD

L 73-87

+21.5

over 3under 4avg −9.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cornell @ Towson

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Cornell

Towson

Cornell

Towson