Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Marshall Thundering Herd: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 4:00 PM ETCam Henderson Center · at Marshall

Final

#231MRSHMarshall98▲ winner

Closing lineMRSH -20.5✓ MRSH covered by 7.5

Closing total164.5Over by 3.5

Season records: AR-Pine Bluff and Marshall
UAPB	This season	MRSH
0-6	Record	3-1
3-3	ATS	2-2
2-4	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UAPB 73–90 MRSH · ✓ MRSH (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UAPB	37	33	70
MRSH	35	63	98

1st half: UAPB 37, MRSH 35 (UAPB by 2). The model had MRSH by 10.1 and a total of 76.3 (actual 72).

Team stats

UAPB		MRSH
23-59 39%	Field goals	34-64 53%
4-18 22%	3-pointers	13-28 46%
20-26 77%	Free throws	17-21 81%
33 10 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
9	Assists	22
8	Steals	7
2	Blocks	6
16	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	22
32	Points in paint	36
5	Fast-break points	7

Players

UAPB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Mirhosseini G	39	11	4	0	2-10	2-8
Quion Williams G	39	17	6	4	7-15	1-3
Trevon Payton G	36	5	4	1	2-6	1-3
Jaquan Scott F	35	23	7	3	8-16	0-1
Milhan Charles G	27	12	3	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Ramel Lloyd Jr. G	19	2	1	0	1-6	0-3
Kyle Brown F	4	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Jai'chaunn Hayes G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ahmad Johnson, Travis Pourciau, Harrison Pickett, Jahmari Hamilton-Brown, Trejon Ware, Dennis Asoro, Anthony Sellars

MRSH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jalen Speer G	35	18	8	11	5-13	4-7
Noah Otshudi G	32	9	4	3	3-9	0-3
Caleb Hollenbeck G	28	23	3	0	8-9	7-8
Matt Van Komen C	23	15	6	0	7-9	0-0
Wyatt Fricks F	22	9	2	2	4-8	1-3
Bench
Wilson Dubinsky G	21	3	5	0	1-4	1-4
Erich Harding F	11	6	4	0	2-3	0-0
Drew Fuquay F	11	7	1	0	3-6	0-2
Landen Joseph G	11	6	1	4	1-3	0-1
Bryce Slay G	6	2	0	2	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Shamarrie Hugie, Kai Spears, Grant Moore, Will Moore, Kaiden White

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRSH -20.5	MRSH -16.9	UAPB +3.6	L MRSH covered
Total	164.5	163.0	Under 1.5	L Over
Projected score	—	UAPB 73 · MRSH 90

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRSH -10.1	UAPB -2.0
1H total	76.3	72
1H projected score	UAPB 33.1 · MRSH 43.2	UAPB 37 · MRSH 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAPB WLWWL	3-3	50%	3-3	3-3
MRSH WWLL	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UAPB away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAPB UOUOU	2-4	33%	0-6
MRSH UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAPBlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MRSHlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

AR-Pine Bluff

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WASH	L 50-94	+34.5	L −9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	@PORT	L 74-83	+12.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 8	@LMU	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@OU	L 69-95	+36.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	@VAN	L 75-104	+41.5	W +12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SMU	L 60-106	+35.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−9.5

PORT

L 74-83

+3.5

LMU

L 72-94

−2.5

L 69-95

+10.5

VAN

L 75-104

+12.5

SMU

L 60-106

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WASH

L 50-94

−16.5

PORT

L 74-83

−7.5

LMU

L 72-94

+8.5

L 69-95

−4.5

VAN

L 75-104

+6.5

SMU

L 60-106

−2.5

over 2under 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marshall

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MASS	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	@TOL	W 85-73	+2.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 12	vsELON	W 96-89	-8.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	@UVA	L 78-104	+20.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

+10.5

TOL

W 85-73

+14.5

ELON

W 96-89

−1.5

UVA

L 78-104

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

−2.5

TOL

W 85-73

−2.5

ELON

W 96-89

+29.5

UVA

L 78-104

+26.5

over 2under 2avg +12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

AR-Pine Bluff @ Marshall

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

AR-Pine Bluff

Marshall

AR-Pine Bluff

Marshall