Presbyterian Blue Hose vs The Citadel Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 4:00 PM ETHarrah's Cherokee Center · Neutral site

#183PRESPresbyterian69▲ winner

Final

Closing linePRES -8.5✓ PRES covered by 19.5

Closing total133.5Under by 23.5

Season records: Presbyterian and The Citadel
PRES	This season	CIT
2-5	Record	0-5
4-3	ATS	0-5
2-5	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRES 75–67 CIT · ✓ PRES (76%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRES	33	36	69
CIT	17	24	41

1st half: PRES 33, CIT 17 (PRES by 16). The model had PRES by 5.0 and a total of 66.2 (actual 50).

Team stats

PRES		CIT
27-50 54%	Field goals	14-46 30%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	7-22 32%
5-9 56%	Free throws	6-13 46%
36 9 off	Rebounds	24 9 off
13	Assists	7
5	Steals	5
5	Blocks	1
9	Turnovers	11
13	Fouls	9
32	Points in paint	12
5	Fast-break points	2

Players

PRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carl Parrish G	34	21	4	2	7-9	5-6
Josh Pickett G	34	15	6	1	5-9	5-9
Triston Wilson G	33	3	8	7	1-6	0-2
Jaylen Peterson F	24	7	5	2	3-3	0-0
Jonah Pierce F	21	13	2	0	6-11	0-1
Bench
Iverson King G	23	6	2	1	3-6	0-2
Chidi Chiakwelu F	17	2	5	0	1-3	0-0
JD Bowden G	6	2	0	0	1-3	0-2
Amare Anderson G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Allison G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Augustine Ayelyine, Erik Taylor, Khalon Hudson

CIT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Moore F	29	7	1	1	3-8	1-4
Carter Kingsbury G	26	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Eze Wali G	21	4	1	1	1-3	1-2
Keynan Davis G	21	0	0	1	0-3	0-3
Simeon German F	14	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Braxton Williams F	24	13	5	1	5-11	3-6
Gabe Hernandez G	16	0	1	1	0-3	0-0
Chase Williams C	15	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Logan Applegate G	11	5	4	0	2-6	1-2
Dante Kearse G	10	6	0	0	2-4	1-3
Marcos Gonzales G	8	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cassius Bonjasky F	5	2	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Rowan Irelan, Jameson Heck, Aidan Alexander, Jack Walter, Sola Adebisi, Logan Menefee

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRES -8.5	PRES -8.1	CIT +0.4	L PRES covered
Total	133.5	141.3	Over 7.8	L Under
Projected score	—	PRES 74.7 · CIT 66.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRES -5.0	PRES -16.0
1H total	66.2	50
1H projected score	PRES 35.6 · CIT 30.6	PRES 33 · CIT 17

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PRES WLWWL	4-3	57%	—	—
CIT LLLLL	0-5	0%	—	0-5

Venue/role: PRES neutral site, as favorite; CIT neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES UOUUO	2-5	29%	2-5
CIT UOOUU	2-3	40%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRESlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
CITlast 5	0-5 0%	0-5 0%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PRES 2–1 CITPRES leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · PRES 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2023-24	CIT 64 @ PRES 71	PRES -3.5	PRES W
Nov 10, 2022-23	PRES 58 @ CIT 70	CIT -2.5	CIT W
Nov 15, 2021-22	CIT 70 @ PRES 74	PRES -1.5	PRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	@UCLA	L 46-86	+25.5	L −14.5	131.5	O 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

−14.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 46-86

+0.5

over 2under 5avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

The Citadel

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −7.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

over 2under 3avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian vs The Citadel

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

The Citadel

Presbyterian

The Citadel